The Influence Of Aging On Industrial Structure Upgrading

China's aging performance is obvious "not rich first old" features,aggravated aging led to the "demographic dividend" disappeared,but also bring the needs of the elderly industry,how to rationally arrange the industrial structure to promote the employment of workers related to China Whether the demolition of the industrial structure can proceed smoothly and the coordination of the population structure and the industrial structure adjustment is the prerequisite for the healthy development of the economy.This requires an in-depth understanding of the impact of population aging on the industrial structure and the development of reasonable industrial policies according to China's national conditions.The paper analyzes the mechanism and influence of the aging and rationalization of the industrial structure on the basis of theoretical analysis,and further discusses the scale of different regions and different cities The heterogeneity of the industrial structure affected by aging.First of all,the impact of aging on the industrial structure of the theoretical analysis,the current study focused on the aging of labor supply and consumption effects on the industrial structure of the direct effect of upgrading,but the lack of discussion of the spatial effect,due to industrial development path dependence and The effects of aging on the externalities of aging and the effects of industrial structure include direct effects and spatial effects.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of aging and the development of industrial structure in China,analyzes its possible association from the time trend and spatial trend of aging and industrial structure change,and explores its spatial correlation using spatial statistical method.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis and spatial statistical analysis,considering the spatial effect and establishing the dynamic space Doberman model,using the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2015,the paper discusses the direct effect,indirect effect and space of the impact of aging on industrial upgrading Effect difference.The results show that(1)From the point of view of direct effect,China's aging characteristics restrict the beneficial effects of the consumption effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,thus hindering the upgrading of industrial structure.From the point of view of space effect,the path dependence and agglomeration effect of industrial structure upgrading The externality of aging will bring about the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure upgrading.(2)According to the analysis of aging and the development of industrial structure,there is a temporal and spatial correlation between the aging of China and the upgrading of industrial structure.The results of exploratory data show that there is spatial correlation between aging and industrial structure and rationalization.(3)The results of empirical test show that aging has hindered the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure.Aging has direct and spillover effects on industrial upgrading.The direct effect shows that aging hinders industrial upgrading and spillover effect is positive The effect of the spillover effect of the spill boundary is declining.The heterogeneity and regional differences of the aging and rationalization of the aging industrial structure are significant: the adverse effects on the high-level and rationalization of the industrial structure in the northeast and western regions are greater,Industrial structure rationalization has played a positive role;from the urban differences: aging only large and large cities in the industrial structure of high-level positive effect on the large,medium and small cities have a negative impact on industry,All from the scale of urban industrial structure rationalization have a negative impact.