A Study On The Spatial Spillover Effects Of China's OFDI On Economic Growth Along The “Belt And Road” Countries

In the fall of 2013,Over the situation,presided Xi Jinping creatively put forward the "Silk Road Economic Zone" and the 21 st century "Maritime Silk Road" initiative.In 2016,the sum of GDP in 64 countries along the way is forecast at US $ 12.0 trillion,accounting for 16% of global GDP.The total population is 3.21 billion,accounting for 43.4% of the global population;foreign trade amounted to 7,188.55 billion dollars,accounting for 21.7% of global trade."China's foreign direct investment statistics in 2015," pointed out that China's foreign direct investment flows in 2015 for the first time exceeded the same period to attract foreign investment level,the first time to become a net capital export.China's investment in the "The Belt and Road"-related countries accounted for 13% of the total annual traffic,up to $ 18.93 billion,increase of 38.6%,increase of 2 times the global investment.This paper analyzes the relationship between China's direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" and the economic growth in the host country through the economic benefits analysis of international capital flows and endogenous economic growth model to know that when the potential benefits of FDI are greater than the potential costs,there will be international direct investment.The reasoning of the endogenous economic growth model can be tentatively concluded that: FDI,import and export have a positive impact on economic growth,low exchange rates and low inflation have a positive impact on economic growth.This paper empirically analyzes the spatial Dubbin model using fixed effects after model test and Hausman test.The empirical results show that China has a significant spillover effect on the OFDI of the countries along "The Belt and Road" and the economic growth of the host country.however,due to their different driving forces for economic growth and the different levels of economic development,the effects of China's OFDI on the economic growth are also different.In terms of regional results,China's OFDI spillover effect on economic growth in Southeast Asia is greater,while its spillover effect on economic growth in West Asia and North Africa is not significant.The direct spillover effect of China's OFDI on the economic growth in Eastern Europe is better than the indirect spillover effect.