Study On Statistical Monitoring Of Regional Financial Risk

Financial risk monitoring is the assessment,judgment,analysis and prediction of the financial risks of various subsystems in the financial system and the overall financial system.It has direct guiding significance to the country's macroeconomic decision-making,investors' investment and financing and management's regulatory decisions.If there is no financial risk statistics monitoring,people will know nothing about the state of China's financial industry,can not judge the risks in all kinds of financial activities,and it will be difficult to avoid blindness and impulsivity,which will eventually lead to the occurrence of financial crisis.Therefore,the primary task to prevent the financial crisis is to quantify and analyze scientifically and rationally the degree and stage of financial risks.Through reviewing existing domestic and foreign related literature,this thesis first studies relevant theories and defines regional financial risks in detail.The formation mechanism of financial risks is analyzed from the aspects of self-source financial risks,infectious financial risks,and upper source financial risks.And the impacts of the macroeconomic policy,local government and financing channels on financial risks are also explored.Secondly,within the theoretical framework of this thesis,combined with the characteristics of China's regional financial risks,a regional financial risk monitoring index system of China is constructed from the four aspects of economic operation,financial resources,financial structure and financial institution stability.According to the international and domestic recognized warning values of each indicator,the boundary of the critical value is divided into four intervals as safety,basic safety,vigilance and danger.The value of all the indexes is normalized by the mapping method,and then the AHP analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the index weight and synthesize the financial risk index.Finally,through the analysis and comparison of different regional financial risk differences,combining the theoretical analysis and empirical results,effective conclusions are drawn.The empirical results show that,firstly,the regional financial risk has obvious temporal and spatial evolution characteristics.The nuclear density estimation shows that the regional financial risk is generally stable in the time dimension,the spatial evolution trend is basically consistent,and the regional differences gradually expand.In terms of each geographical area,there are differences in temporal dimension characteristics,spatial evolution trends and regional evolution differences.Second,there are significant differences in the state space of regional financial risks.Viewing from the state distribution of regional financial risks,most provinces are in the margin of security by means of signal lights visualization.Provinces with higher regional financial risk index values are mainly in the western region.As for the changes of regional financial risks,14 provinces are in the rising trend,while 17 provinces(cities)are in the trend of stability or decline.Thirdly,the distribution of regional financial risk states has convergence features.From the perspective of time migration,regional financial risk migration has the characteristics of agglomeration.Seeing from the probability transfer matrix,the distribution trend of regional financial risks in the country is convergent,and the regional financial risk is relatively safe,but its safety level is not high.A high risk state may be triggered if there is no sound risk prevention measures.