The Study Of Guizhou Economic Monitoring And Early Warning System

The operation of economic system exist certain inertia, and the periodic fluctuations are usually developed. Many factors influenced on economic fluctuation , which makes the economic fluctuation is very complicated. Duo to archive more correct monitoring and forecasting economic operation, we established a monitoring and pre warning system of macro economic boom is needed. We use a series of economic indicators to establish the barometer and alarm of macroeconomics. The monitoring system of macro economic boom, advanced in the late 19th century, after over one hundreds years" development and perfection, become a complete system, which contained the selection of indexes and pretreatment and Final Synthesis of pre warning index. The monitoring and pre warning system of macro prosperity, which has perfect ordered structure, can effectively show the operation rule of economic.Through analysis the elaborate and comparison of review oi the monitoring method of economic boom, we choose the monitoring method of economic boom which is applicable to the situation of the province in Guizhou province. Then we make our choice of economic performance by combine near economic data.This paper analyzed economic data in Guizhou Province, and divided indicators into the leading indicators, coincident indicators, lagging indicators. We found the lead of leading indicators is price index, therefore, leading indicators contain variable of price index.The lead of coincident indicators is production and revenue variables.The lead of lagging indicators is consumption variables. Further analysis focusing on the Granger causality test and error correct model .The analysis showed that changing of the price index in Guizhou Province draw ahead the society production. The price index of Guizhou Province, especially the price index of raw materials price index reflects represents the demand of resources in Guizhou. In the Guizhou Province, the price index is an exogenous variable . and ahead of the social production of Guizhou Province and it plays a guiding role of long-term economic fluctuation.After indicators analyzing, we use the composite index method to obtain the leading index, coincident index, lagging index. And we use ARIMA models to predict the index . Analysis indicated that the market showed some weakness in Guizhou Province after financial crisis. However, a whole set of positive policies on the end of 2008 showed remarkable effect.In the end. this paper summarized the effect of composite index method and offered a few ideas to the policies of economic in Guizhou.