A Study On The Quantity Of Employment Based On Uncertainty

As an important aspect of macroeconomic study,uncertainty plays an important role in the employment problem.The research on the relationship between uncertainty and employment makes a lot of achievements abroad,but the relevant domestic research is still in its infancy.It is of great significance to empirically analyze the relationship between uncertainty and employment growth in China.This paper summarizes and reviews the relevant literature on employment and uncertainty,and then analyzes the main factors affecting the employment growth in China.Among them,there are a few domestic studies focusing on the impact of uncertainty on the employment growth,let alone empirical analysis.Therefore,this paper constructs index system of uncertainty at first.The uncertainty is divided into three parts:economic cycle fluctuation,policy uncertainty and natural disasters,and H-P filter,GARCH Model and Proxy Variable Method are respectively used to measure China's macroeconomic uncertainty.According to Cobb Douglas production function,this paper constructs a theoretical model with the quantity of employment as dependent variable,uncertainty index as the core variable,and the economic growth,industrial structure,technological progress,human capital and opening degree as controlled variables.Sample data from 1990 to 2014 among 31 provinces in China are used to establish the panel regression model.The empirical tests are made to analyze the impact of uncertainty on China's employment growth and regional differences.The empirical results show that from the overall regression results,the impact of uncertainty on employment growth in China is significant,but the impacts of different uncertainty parts are different.Among them,cyclical upward fluctuations in economy has a significant promoting effect on employment growth,and the effect of downward fluctuations is reversed;the promoting employment effect of policy uncertainty is mainly introduced by fiscal aspect,and the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on employment is not significant;natural disasters do not have a significant impact on China's employment growth.From sub regional perspective,the uncertainty of east China plays the most significant promoting effect on employment growth since cyclical economic upward fluctuations,fiscal policy uncertainty,monetary policy uncertainty and natural disasters in this region all have positive impacts on the employment growth,while the impact of uncertainty on employment growth in the middle and the east of China is relatively weak.Finally,combined with the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some suggestions from uncertainty and other controlled variables aspects to promote the employment growth in China.