Analysis Of The Spillover Effect Of OECD And China's Service Productivity

At present,the global economy has gradually entered the era of service economy,the world has seen a general trend of "industrial economy" is transforming to "service economy".The development of the service industry is becoming an important factor affecting the national economic growth,the adjustment of employment structure and the improvement of international competitiveness.In 2015,China's economic restructuring came to an important turning point.The added value of the service industry has reached 346,149.7 billion yuan,the proportion of GDP for the first time more than 50%,the service industry has become the largest industry.The Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee is to clarify the development of modern service industry,relax the market access,promote the quality and efficient development of the service industry to promote the production of services to the professional and high-end extension of the value chain clear instructions.The service industry has the characteristics of industry covering a wide range of industries,large employment capacity and high input-output ratio.It is the core of the strategic transformation of the economic structure under the "new normal".Therefore,it is necessary to speed up the development of the service industry and maintain the high growth of the service industry.However,in terms of China,the service industry develops still relatively slow,there is still a low proportion of added value,low employment weight and low proportion of per capita added value.The Chinese economy needs to develop new growth points,and productivity is the fundamental driving force of economic growth,so it is necessary to study China's service industry productivity.The research object of the article is the productivity of the service industry,on the basis of the existing research results,we focus on the spillover effect of international service industry development to China service industry.Based on the panel data of OECD countries(except Chile and Israel)and China over the period of 1995 to 2014,this paper studied the influence factors of the labor productivity in the service sector from the international perspective.Using Spatial Durbin model and spatial econometric estimation method,this paper analyzed the impact factors of the service industry,including the service industry opening degree,industrial level,urbanization level and the market change degree.The paper analyzed the direct and indirect effects and discussed the spillover effect of service industry factors.There are five chapters in this paper.The main contents are as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction.Firstly,we introduced the background and development trend of the world service industry and characteristics of the developmentof service industry in China,the significance of this theory and practical significance of the paper,and then introduces the framework and structure of the article.Chapter 2 is literature review.Firstly,we reviewed the development of service industry productivity measure at home and abroad,summarized the service industry of the development of the study of productivity and research status of serviceproductivity at home and abroad,including level of development and existing problems.Secondly,we combined the literature of study of main factors affecting the service sector productivity,summarized predecessors' research achievements on the influence factor of service industry,lay a theoretical foundation in this paper.Chapter 3 is the introduction of spatial econometrics method.Including model introduction,estimation method,model identification and selection of weight matrix.In the spatial econometric model,firstly,according to the LeSage(2014)and Solmaria and Elhorst(2016)of the latest research results,using the model of bayesian posterior probability estimates,space doberman model is chosen as the model in this paper.The estimation method is estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method.The selection of weight matrix adopts the composite weight matrix.Chapter 4 is the empirical test for the influence factors of service productivity.Firstly,we introduced the reason of the influence factors,and selected service level of opening to the outside world,the country's industrialization and urbanization level and degree of market change these four indicators as variables affecting the service productivity.Then we establishspatial econometric model,and choose space Durbin modelthrough the bayesian posterior probability,determine the spatial correlation,and analyse the characteristics of spatial distribution of service productivity and its influence factors of direct and indirect effect.Chapter 5 is the conclusion and policy recommendations.According to the theoretical structure and empirical results,we put forward some policy recommendations for the development of China's service industry.The innovation of this article lies in:First,this article try toconsider services development possible spillover effect between countriesfrom the international perspective.From the factors affecting the productivity of service industry may have a spillover effect,seek favorable measures to promote the development of China's service industry;Second,in terms of spatial econometric model selection,according to the latest research results,this paper based on the bayesian posterior probability model in doberman panel space and space doberman choose the better fitting error model data model,compared with the traditional model test had great progress;Third,in the choice of weight matrix,unlike previous subjective weights using a single matrix,this paper try to use the complex space based on the geographical distance and economic distance weighting matrix,and based on "the principle of optimal fitting" choose composite weight matrix of different degree of empowerment,to a large extent to avoid the deficiency of the single form of weight matrix and subjectivity.