The Impact Of Tariff Cut To The CAFTA's Trade Growth

China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA)is China's first foreign trade fairs,its member countries,including China and ASEAN 10 countries(Brunei,Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Cambodia,Laos,Myanmar and Vietnam,with the first six countries being the oldest member of ASEAN,with relatively rapid economic growth and four new members of ASEAN.CAFTA in November 4,2002 officially began construction,to January 1,2010 free trade area was formally established.CAFTA is the world's most populous free trade area,is also the largest free trade zone between developing countries,but also one of the world's three major free trade zones in the world economy occupies an important position.Since the establishment of the Free Trade Area in 2002,the free trade area has been formally established and continuously improved.The total import and export volume between China and ASEAN has increased rapidly,from 8.67 billion dollars in 2002 to 468.2 billion US dollars in 2015,an increase of 8.6 times.Increasing trade makes China the largest trading partner of ASEAN,and ASEAN has become China's third largest trading partner,and its share of trade is increasing.Therefore,the analysis of CAFTA's trade growth is of great significance to the study of China's foreign trade.In addition,CAFTA is the first free trade area established by China and other countries.The study of CAFTA's trade growth can accumulate some experience for the negotiation of China's trade agreements with other countries and the future construction work.It is very important Practical significance.This paper analyzes the impact of tariff changes on the trade growth of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area from the perspective of binary margin.In this paper,the research of this paper is divided into six parts.The first chapter introduces the research purpose and significance,the background of the topic,the literature review,the research method and the institutional arrangement of this paper.The second chapter is the theoretical part,the relevant free trade area theory and the new trade theory,the free trade area theory is divided into the static effect and dynamic effect of the free trade area.The third chapter analyzes the trade status of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in recent years,which is analyzed from the three aspects of trade growth,trade direction and trade structure.The fourth chapter is the decomposition of the dual marginal,split the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area trade into the extensive margin and intensive margin,to more in-depth analysis of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area trade growth path.The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis,which refers to James E.Anderson's gravitational model,and on the basis of the gravity model,we add the Hummels(2005)dual marginal decomposition method to construct the econometric model.And use the state and time cross dummy variable and country and country cross dummy variable to absorb the missing variables in the model,so we can do the main regression analysis and robustness test.Based on the obtained dual margin data,it analyzes the effect of tariff on total exports,extensive margin and intensive margin,and finds that tariff reduction can effectively increase the total export growth and the increase of export product type.However,The impact of intensive margin is not significant.Chapter 6 draws the corresponding conclusions and policy recommendations,reviews the effectiveness of tariffs since the construction of the FTA,and makes recommendations for future policy guidance.