Research On The Local Government Debt In The Coexistence Of Spatial Correlation And Heterogeneity

The discussion on the debt of local government in china has been hot topic for deepening reform of the local fiscal and taxation systems,Improving the bugget management system for local governments and transforming government functions and economic growth pattern.The existing researches have much discuss on the cause of information,risk and system design about the debt of local government.But most of them are limited to single,part,short and static normative analysis and empirical test.This arcticle will bring the cause of the debt of local government into a long-term dynamic model to analysis the influence relation.According to the collected data which is interprovinc ial panel data from 1998 to2016 and the use of related software,such as EViews,Ucinet and Arcgis,study the spatial correlation and using QAP method to carry out correlation analysis and regression analysis of its impact factors..In consideration of spatial heterogeneity we use Geographical weighted model?GWR?to study influence factors.According to the article we can have four conclusions.Firstly,generally speaking the debt of local government is universal relation in space.Secondly,the local governments can divide into four parts by studying the role of local government in the whole network.Thirdly,among the spatially related factors that affect local government debt,it is found that the economic development degree and the industrial structure have no obvious effect on the relationship between the local government debt network,and the adjacent matrix D,GDP per capita is R,and fiscal expenditure and GDP are Z.At last,the main six factors affecting the size of local gover nment debt;X₁?fiscal revenue/fiscal expenditure?,X₃?increase of secondary/increase of thirdly?,X₇?GDP of neighboring regions?have negative correlation with the per capita local government balances.X₂?per GDP?,X₅?increase of financial industry/GDP?,X₆?investment in property/fixed investment?have positive correlation with per capita local government balances.The regression coefficient for X₄?total import/export/GDP?is not significant overall.Spatial analysis finds that although the regression coefficients of each province in space are different,the overall impact is the same.Through these conclusions,we can enlighten the local government to make rational use of their role in the network,reasonable control of financial system indicators,macro-control indicators,and so on,so as to better curb the scale of local government debt,prevent the emergence of risk...