Study On The Effects Of China's Financial Automatic Stabilizer And Its Spatial Characteristics

Fiscal policies are divided into two categories: discretionary fiscal policies and fiscal policies of automatic stabilizer.Most academic studies on the impact of fiscal policies on economic fluctuations were started from discretionary fiscal policies for a long time.And in recent years,the research results of domestic and foreign scholars show that the discretionary part of government spending is one of the reasons which lead to economic instability.At this time,fiscal automatic stabilizers began to enter the eyes of politicians and academia,which were always been ignored,and fiscal automatic stabilizers have attracted more and more attention.At present,the researches on fiscal automatic stabilizers in China are mostly carried out on the theoretical analysis level,thus there are little empirical researches on the fiscal automatic stabilizers,the spatial characteristics of fiscal automatic stabilizers are not discussed on the basis of empirical research on the function of fiscal automatic stabilizers.However,our country is vast and many provinces are adjacent to one another,and coupled with the popularity of high-speed rail and other traffic tools,the coverage of the Internet,the use of Ali-quick payment,they all narrowed the distance between the areas virtually,accelerated the economic and cultural infiltration of each other,therefore,they make the fiscal automatic stabilizers have a certain degree of spatial correlation,and show the function of "spatial spillover effect" or "spatial competition".In addition to the spatial correlation,the difference of resource endowment caused by geographical location,the disparity of economic development brought by government policy and the difference of the stock of economic factors among regions,they may make fiscal automatic stabilizers work differently in different areas,it means fiscal automatic stabilizers may exist spatial heterogeneity effect.Based on this,the paper selects provincial macroeconomic data from1999 to2014,the paper use the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP as the proxy variable of fiscal automatic stabilizers.Then,establish the general panel regression model,the spatial panel regression model and the threshold panel regression model to study the effect of fiscal automatic stabilizers and its spatial characteristics.The results of the general panel regression model and the spatial Durbin model show: Fiscal policies play a stabilizing role on economic fluctuations in the region,but act as an amplifier on economic fluctuations in adjacent regions,this mean there exist significant spatial correlation.In the study of spatial heterogeneity,in addition to use the threshold regression model,in order to study the effect of location on the effect of the fiscal automatic stabilizers,The article also according to the east,west and middle of China to dividesour country,and then establish the general panel regression model,the results show:on the whole,the function of fiscal automatic stabilizer in the eastern region is weaker than that in the central region,while the central region is weaker than that in the western region;high prices and high human capital will have a negative impact on the automatic stabilizers in east and middle region(Except for individual provinces),the increasing human capital will enhance the effectiveness of the fiscal automatic stabilizers;The level of infrastructure has always been to enhance the financial automatic stabilizer function,and the level of urbanization promotes the function of fiscal automatic stabilizer in the eastern developed provinces,and reduces the function of fiscal automatic stabilizer in the backward provinces of Western China.Finally,according to the results of models,this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations.