The Study On Evolution Of The Port System Along Maritime Silk Road

Maritime silk road strategy is a major strategy of opening policy of China under the new era,aimed to build all-round,multi-level,complex interconnection network.As nodes of the interconnection network,ports are the priority area of construction of Maritime Silk Road,modes and results of their construction directly affect the economic and political interests of the countries along the route.The study on the evolution of the port system along maritime silk road can reveal the development law of the port system along the route,and provide the theoretical basis for the port construction along maritime silk road.Based on this,this paper will study the evolution of the port system along maritime silk road.Firstly,it carefully describes the evolution of ancient maritime silk road and status quo of the port system along modern maritime silk road.Secondly,based on the theory of distribution analysis and visual analysis software,this paper analyzes the distribution trend of the port system along maritime silk road for a long time and analyzes the evolution of the spatial layout of the port system.The results show that,the evolution of the distribution experienced the process of "decentralized" ? "agglomeration"?"decentralized" and the evolution of spatial distribution experienced the process of"bipolar-dominance" ??"East Asia-dominance"?"China-dominance",and reasonably predicted that the "decentralized" trend and "China-dominance" spatial layout will be maintained for some time in the future.Finally,based on the theory of population ecology,the evolution model of population growth is established to analyze and forecast the evolution trend of the port system along the maritime silk road.It is found that the inflection point of the port system evolution occurred in 2008,namely the growth rate of the port system reached its peak,after that,the speed began to decline.In 2013,the port system along the maritime silk road went into recession,the growth rate of port system will gradually approach 0.In 2030,the scale of port system will reach the limit.Therefore,there is a need for new impetus to make the port system enter the next round of evolution;Also further study the evolution of the ports under the interaction of different ports within system,based on Lotka-Volterra model,it is found that the Singapore and Port Kelang have mutual restraint on each other,and the effect of Singapore on Port Kelang is stronger than that of Singapore.The fact that Port Kelang reaches the limit of port size 10 years earlier than Singapore port can prove it.Based on the multi-population evolution model,it is found that there are Predatory,Competition,and symbiosis relationship between Singapore,Tanjung Pelepas,Pinang and Johor.