The Study Of The Scale Of Non-Observed Economy In Shanghai

As an economically developed city,Shanghai is an important pillar of China's economy.The GDP growth of Shanghai has slowed down in recent years,and the GDP based on economic census caliber is bigger than the raw GDP.According to the researches both at home and abroad,in the study of GDP calculation,there are still some economic activities are not included in the index of GDP.These economic activities,which are supposed to be calculated,are defined as"Non-observed economy"(shortly,NOE).Based on the NOE researches of Chinese scholars,this paper gives the definition and causes of Shanghai's NOE,and makes an empirical analysis of the NOE scale estimation in Shanghai by marginal propensity to consume and save method,economic census data and MIMIC model.At present,there almost no in-depth study of the NOE in Shanghai.The NOE definition is based on 1993SNA,in the progress of study,this paper uses the conception of 2008SNA.When estimating the Shanghai's NOE scale by MIMIC model,this paper builds the specific MIMIC model indicator system combined with the characteristics of Shanghai's economic development and the revising concept of Chinese national economic accounting system.Specially,this paper uses the 'technology' indicator as the causal variable for the NOE estimation by MIMIC model for the first time.The classification of Shanghai's NOE can be divided into three categories:non-observed production,illegal production and production missed due to statistical reasons.The main causes of Shanghai's NOE are led by tax factors,government factors,social environment factors and the output of new industries failed to be fully reflected by the GDP,etc.From 2000 to 2015,by the MIMIC model,the Shanghai's NOE proportion of GDP is between 9.7%and 18.4%,after 2007,there is an obvious downward trend.From the volume point of view,from 2008 to 2015,the scale of Shanghai's NOE has reached a relatively stable range.The result shows that Shanghai's NOE does exist.To further realize GDP comprehensive accounting and provide more scientific data support for macro decision making of government,we can reform the statistical system and monitor Shanghai's NOE development with the help of MIMIC model,so as to ensure the healthy development of Shanghai's economy.At the same time,the study results of the NOE in Shanghai can also be reference for other regions.