Demand Forecasting Model For Rare Earth Of China And Its Applications

This paper originates from the humanities and social sciences research project funds projects of the Ministry of education which is named the important mineral resources development strategy selection of overseas risk assessment techniques(Item number: 12YJA790208).Based on the detailed summary on the theory of mine demand prediction and those methods of demand prediction,this paper takes the demand prediction of rare earth as the main line,using the method of theory analysis& statistics model,standard analysis & empirical study to predict the demand of rare earth.The main contents and conclusions are as follows.Firstly,this paper analyzed the current situation of rare earth in home and abroad from the perspectives of resource reserve,mineral deposit distribution and the supply and demand of rare earth.On the basis of it,this paper qualitatively predicted the application tendency and rare earth demand,finding that rare earth reserve had decreased severely compared with it ten years ago and the proportion of illegal supply is still huge.What's more,the index of exploitation and smelting separation tends to be stable;the rare earth structure is going to rely on high-tech and high-value products.Secondly,this paper analyzed and distinguished many variables which influence rare earth demand,establishing the long-term equilibrium model by choosing four variables(GDP,rare earth price,industry structure,the consumption of rare earth)and using the method of Johansen co-integration test.The result shows that the long-term income elasticity of rare earth is 1.24,the price elasticity is-1.03 and the structure elasticity is 3.55,the industry structure influences rare earth demand most.Thirdly,this paper tested the Granger cause and effect relationship between economic development and rare earth demand.On the basis of the long-term equilibrium of rare earth demand,the changing path of rare earth demand under different increase rate was stimulated by the method of scenario analysis.In the coming 2020,the rare earth demand will excess 200 thousand.Fourthly,to predict the short-term fluctuation and demand of rare earth,this paper established a lag one error correction model,according to autoregressive distribution lag model and extraction of the error correction term.From the short term,the rare earth demand fluctuate greatly,the adjustment rate which deviates from lastyear's is about 31%.GDP influences the demand fluctuation most.The model can accurately forecast the rare earth demand.The prediction of 2016 and 2017 is 154338 ton and 174127 ton respectively.The results show that: the rare earth demand will continually increase no matter the long-term and short-term.As prediction,there is no possibility of sharply decrease on rare earth demand.A multi-angles coordination management on rare earth demand is needed for the realization of the balance between demand and exploitation quota.The long-term and short-term demand analysis and the forecasting model are meaningful for theory analysis and application,especially provide reference for the rare earth demand prediction and policy management.