| To prevent and deter terrorists,the problem about optimizing traffic security has become major challenge all over the world.First,since the 1990s,with the development of economics and promotion of information technology,terrorists and its organization spread rapidly in the word,their methods on attacking evolved constantly,from the initial military attack to kidnapping,killing civilians,suicide bombings and other cruel acts.Their choices about attack sites also are beginning to switch stations,stadiums and other announcements.The aim is to injure the more innocent civilians and undermine social peace and stability.According to the global terrorist attacks databases statistics,from 1970 to 2015,there were 19138 terrorist attacks worldwide,the frequency of attacks causing mass death has risen year by year,and excluding unfulfilled attacks.Second,since the 1950s,with the emergence of large-scale urbanization movement,urban population surge,in order to alleviate the pressure of travel,traffic rapidly developed.However,due to the characteristics of the subway,included joint,linearity and limitation,the terrorists regard the subway as one of the main targets.Among them,the outbreak of the Sarin subway attacks in Tokyo,it marked that metro became new targets,and the traffic departments around the world began to pay attention to security check.In term of our country,on the one hand,some countries including America,Britain and Russia were attacks in subway,and the international east Turkistan organizations have become increasingly rampant,the national terrorists in Xinjiang and Tibet carry out attack frequently.On the other hand,as the world’s largest population,a large of passengers often take the subway,once it suffered extremist attacks,the consequences will be unimaginable.Despite there are safe in China’s subways,on March 1 2014,"the Kunming Railway Station stabbed event",causing 29 death 143 injured,sounded alarm for the subway security.Therefore,the establishment and optimization of subway security has become the focus of the counter-terrorism department in the world.In 2008,the Beijing Olympic Games approaching,in order to ensure passengers’ safe,do preventing attacks,relative department successfully applied for the implement of subway security,became the first country on applying subway security checks.Relevant departments at home and abroad have set up security inspection in various public places.At same time,many scholars have done a lot of research on the optimization of security,including airports and ships.The workers regard some information provided by passengers as priori information,different passengers do different security checks,but it has not been implemented because of discriminated.Another is to apply the latest technology,including fingerprint identification,face recognition and so on.The domestic related literature mainly considers the staff efficiency and formulated the best scheduling model.In order to make rational use of social resources,effectively deter terrorists.Considering the situation of our country,the paper combine with game theory and queuing theory,establish two security system and optimize,analysis security’s efficiency,social welfare in two different stages,compute the utility passengers and workers,and understand their strategy choice.This paper attempts to apply from the two point of view,established the three party game model of the special situation and routine situations,introduces queuing theory about passengers’ waiting time,provides the theoretical support for improving the efficiency of security.Specific research work includes the following three points.The first:passengers are divided into two,ordinary passengers and potential attackers;the period has the general and the special period,the passengers whose luggage can be smoothly through the X-ray screening instrument will take subway in the general period;the passengers need to accept the hand-held metal detector scanning and their luggage must accept the X-ray screening instrument in the special period.and base on these,we simulate respective game trees,construct social welfare function,maximizing social welfare value and optimizing the X-ray screening instrument and the hand-held metal detector scanning.At last,we study some influencing factors and themselves changing directions.Thus,we can get the following conclusion:(1)we can use a less stringent screening system if the manual inspection cost or the inconvenience cost is higher;and a more stringent screening system if the damage from an attack is higher,the fraction of attacks in the population is higher.At the same time,compared with the universal subway security inspection,the accuracy of X-ray checking machine can be reduced in the special case,in order to reduce the false alarm rate and inconvenience for normal passenger.Because the accuracy of X-ray checking machine in the universal subway security inspection is higher,it can be effectively screen the potential attacks with the larger probability.When passenger flow is large,passengers need to spend some time in passing security inspection.Considering the importance of time,some ordinary passenger will abandon the subway,but some potential attackers will insist on taking subway in order to carry out their projects.So in this part,we introduce queuing theory on above-mentioned game tree,and separately consider the passengers’ utility and social utility.The following one is we summarize the utility function about ordinary passenger,potential attacker and the total social.Based on the sub game perfect Nash equilibrium,we study their optimal strategy.The result show that if the accuracy rate of security inspection is higher than a certain critical value,the attackers will abandon taking the subway,in other words,the subway will not be attacked.However,the ordinary passengers’strategy choice depend on the contrast between the arrival rate and the service rate;and based on different strategies of passengers,the utility of security department should be calculated,so as to make right decided:the secondary security and the third security.In short,this paper takes into account the different modes of subway security inspection in different periods and the selection of passengers in the irregular situation,which provides a new way for improving the accuracy of security inspection and preventing attacks.The research results provide some references for the further optimization of the existing two grade subway security inspection and the rational utilization of social resources.However,this paper cannot consider the impact of security staff scheduling model on their work efficiency,which will be a research direction in the future. |
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