Research On The Optimization Of Energy Structure In Heilongjiang Province Based On Low-carbon Economy

With the rapid development of the world economy,some developing countries only focus on the rise in GDP growth and ignore the importance of sustainable development.Relying on a large number of energy resources to stimulate economic growth in an extensive economic growth mode already can not longer meet the requirements of the low-carbon economy development.In order to change this economic growth model,the key solution is to solve the energy structure problem.Based on the current energy structure situation in Heilongjiang Province,this thesis analyzes the factors that influent the energy structure and adopts the qualitative and quantitative research methods to measure the influence degree of these influencing factors on energy structure.Then,according to the energy supply and demand amount in Heilongjiang Province predicted under different conditions,this thesis will optimize the best scenario,and finally puts forward the optimization strategy of energy structure in Heilongjiang Province.First of all,based on the connotation of low-carbon economy and energy structure,the present situation of carbon emission and the current situation of energy structure are measured and analyzed.According to the existing energy structure problems,the mechanism of energy structure optimization to low-carbon economy is analyzed.The influencing factors of the energy structure are filtered and measured using 3E system.Factor sorting feasibility is further discussed with neural network pattern recognition method.The influence and its extent of each factor is determined by cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis.Secondly,the energy structure of Heilongjiang Province is optimized from the perspective of low carbon economy.In this part,the target restraint system and parameter system are constructed based on the on the existing energy demand structure model,policies and regulations of Heilongjiang Province.Then according to the different scenario assumptions,the total energy demand and demands by category in Heilongjiang Province are predicted.After that the gray multi-objective decision-making model is adopted to optimize the energy demand structure under different scenarios,and the scenario of the low-carbon economy development in Heilongjiang Province is selected.Based on this model,the energy supply structure of Heilongjiang Province is predicted.Finally,based on low carbon economy in Heilongjiang Province energy structure optimization strategy research,this thesis puts forward practical countermeasures and suggestions on the optimization of energy structure in Heilongjiang Province according to the influence of each subsystem in the 3E system on the energy structure combined with the existing energy endowments and policies and regulations in Heilongjiang Province.