Study On The Dynamic Evolution Of House Price In Chongqing And Its Influencing Factors

As an important part of the national economy,the real estate market plays a key role in the entire social economy.As an important indicator to measure the healthy and stable development of the real estate market and even the regional economy? Housing prices have always been a hot topic of research.With China's urbanization process has accelerated and the real estate industry has developed rapidly,housing prices have steadily increased.It has been the focus of attention of social groups such as home buyers,investors,real estate developers and government management departments.Understanding the internal causes of house price volatility,analyzing its trends and regional differences,and accurately forecasting house prices are all crucial to proposing policy proposals that are conducive to the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.This paper analyzes the housing prices and their influencing factors in all districts and counties in Chongqing from 2004 to 2016.First,spatial-temporal evolution of house prices was analyzed by using the global Moran's I index,local Moran's I scatter plot,and LISA analysis method.Secondly,based on the theory of spatial econometrics,the spatial Durbin model was established to analyze the influencing factors of housing prices in all districts and counties in Chongqing.Finally,the integrated learning model(including: GBRT,XGBoost,Random Forest),linear regression model and k-nearest neighbor model prediction model are constructed and compared.And the best performing GBRT model is selected to predict housing prices in different districts and counties in Chongqing in the next 3 years.The results show that there is a strong positive spatial correlation between housing prices in all districts and counties in Chongqing,which presents a spatial agglomeration phenomenon.Housing prices in all districts and counties in Chongqing mainly show high-high accumulation and low-low accumulation.The high-high accumulation areas are located in the main city of Chongqing,and the low-high accumulation areas are mainly in the districts of Bishan and Jiangjin,which are close to the main city.The districts and counties with low-low accumulation is the most,while the high-low type is Yongchuan,Wanzhou,Fuling and other several counties.As time goes on,the number of areas in which the space is self-related and significant is reduced from 16 in 2004 to 10 in 2016.Housing prices in Chongqing are greatly affected by the population's environmental variables and economic environment variables.Natural environment variables have little effect on house price fluctuations.In 2017-2019,housing prices generally will show an upward trend,but Fengjie,Pengshui,Qianjiang,Wushan,Xiushan and others will fail due to the decline of house prices in 2015.In order to maintain a sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market in Chongqing,it is possible to conduct a “branch policy” to control house prices in light of price aggregation.Improve the ticket trading system to prevent housing prices from soaring due to the imbalance between supply and demand of housing.Promote the housing supply reform and strengthen the construction of affordable housing to provide housing security for low-income and middle-income families.