Research On Safety Stock Optimization Based On Supply Chain Demand Forecasting

Under the background of the increasing development of the Internet,the rapid expansion of E-business and the popularization and specialized services of logistics industry provide the basic conditions for the reform and innovation of supply chain.The supply chain is changing from traditional planning,storage,distribution and service to a quick and intelligent supply system.The diversification of customer demand and the dynamic development of the market environment make the forecast of supply chain more important.Timely control of demand changes can prompt enterprises and distributors to adjust production and inventory in a timely manner,reduce inventory costs and shorten the reaction time of the supply chain.The rapid change of big data and Internet of things provides a technological foundation for data statistics and operation monitoring of supply chain,and supply chain is gradually developing to a wider and faster intelligent supply network.Based on the research of supply chain demand forecasting and inventory optimization at home and abroad,this paper expounds the definition,classification and process of supply chain management,introduces the basic theory and characteristics of demand forecasting.Then the definition of the safety inventory is explained in detail,and the factors affecting the safety stock and the evaluation methods of each factor are listed.By analyzing various methods of supply chain demand forecasting,the advantages and disadvantages of time series method and multi factor analysis method are summarized.Based on the above theoretical research,this paper takes series of shirt V brand as the research object,analyzes the factors affecting the sales of shirts in North China,and to predict multi factor comprehensive analysis of demand,according to the inventory status of enterprise production,consider many factors such as the given desired cycle service level,service rate and seasonal influence,the security of supply chain inventory was calculated.Through the improvement of the safety stock,the inventory cost of the enterprise is reduced,the risk of the shortage is avoided,and the smooth operation of the supply chain is guaranteed.