Spatial Autoregression Analysis Of Housing Price Difference Affecting Residents' Consumption

The outstanding problem facing China's macroeconomy is that social housing prices are high and the level of national consumer demand is low.How to stabilize the growth of house prices and raise the level of people's consumer demand is the top priority of policy adjustment.The rapid development of the real estate market,real estate and upstream and downstream industries have become an important pillar of the national economy,the impact of real estate on the macroeconomic can not be ignored,the level of housing prices will affect the level of residential consumption.The theoretical basis of this article is the persistent income hypothesis and the life cycle hypothesis.It links China's objective analysis of the transmission mechanism of real estate price level to the national consumption level,and points out that the conduction methods affecting households with housing include the liquidity constraint effect,direct wealth effect,and confidence effect.The ways of affecting non-household families include substitution effects,liquidity constraint effects,budget constraint effects,and desperate consumer effects.Thus,the sample is divided into families with two or more suites,families with one suite,and families without housing.In previous studies of national consumption,the scholars considered the CPI price index of urban and rural residents in each province as an independent,uncorrelated variable.The spatial interaction between provinces and cities would not be taken into account.Geographical conditions among various regions.There are often various connections.If we rashly assume that the variables are independent of each other,then the model setting will inevitably have certain deviations.The method chosen in this paper is the spatial econometric method.The method of spatial weight matrix used incorporates the effects of each other in the model,and thus draws the following conclusions:(1)The areas with higher prices in general have higher consumption than those with lower prices,of which the positive effect is most pronounced for households with two or more houses and families without housing.(2)With two or more suites The household consumption of households and families that own a suite has a spatial effect,that is,the provinces with high residents' consumption aggregate with each other,and the provinces with low residents' consumption gather together.The consumption of non-housing families does not have a significant spatial effect.(3)The increase in consumption in neighboring provinces can lead to an increase in consumption in the province.At the same time,prices in neighboring provinces are higher than those in the provinces.This difference in housing prices affects the province.The consumption has a negative effect.