Industrial Isomorphism Between China And Major Countries And Its Impact On China’s Import And Export Trade

With the development of China’s economy and its advanced industrial structure,the constant increase in the proportion of intra-industry trade in China’s international trade is an inevitable trend in the future.The impact of industrial isomorphism on intra-industry trade has two sides:on the one hand,the premise of intra-industry trade is the convergence of the industrial structure among trading partners,the increase of industrial isomorphism between countries may promote the development of intra-industry trade;on the other hand,according to Melitz’s heterogeneous enterprise trade model,only those enterprises with higher productivity can enter into international market,those with lower productivity only can sell goods in domestic market,and those with the lowest productivity will be eliminated from both domestic and foreign markets.Therefore,the convergence of industrial structure may promote（restrain）the export（import）of the countries with more competitive power,and an opposite effect on a country with less competitive power.This article focuses on analyzing industrial isomorphism between China and major countries and its impact on China’s import and export trade,which has important practical significance for promoting the development of China’s intra-industry trade.This article reviews the concept of industrial isomorphism and its related literature,based on the data in the world input-output table,use three indicators which are structural similarity coefficient,correlation coefficient,and Krugman structural difference index to measure industrial isomorphism between China and 41 countries over the year 2000²014,then use the two-step system GMM method estimating dynamic panel data models,revealing the influencing factors of industrial isomorphism and its impact on China’s import and export trade.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the calculating results of three indicators show that:（1）The industrial isomorphism between China and most countries is relatively high,it exists huge difference between China and different countries;（2）The industrial isomorphism between China and 41 countries fluctuate differently over different periods.Based on the annual average,before 2008 the industrial isomorphism fluctuated greatly and fluctuated less after 2008.Second,the results of empirical analysis on influencing factors of industrial isomorphism show that one-period lag value of the interpreted variable(S_ij,t-1)has a significant role in promoting the convergence of the industrial structure between China and these countries in the current period;The growth of difference between the propotion of China gross capital formation accounts for China’s GDP and the propotion of foreign gross capital formation accounts for foreign country’s GDP（dgcfg）has a significant inhibitory effect on the convergence of industrial structure;the growth of difference in R&D expenditures between China and major countries（drad）also has a significant inhibitory effect on the convergence of industrial structure;the increase in difference of GDP between China and major countries（dgdp）can promote the convergence of the industrial structure significantly;the increase in China’s degree of dependency on export（ced）can promote the convergence of the industrial structure between China and major countries;The effect of difference in per capita GDP between China and major countries（dpgdp）is not significant at all.Third,the empirical analysis about the impact of industrial isomorphism between China and major countries on China’s export trade,based on the gravitation model I construct a dynamic panel data model,use the natural logarithm of China’s exports to these 41 countries（lnexc）as explained variable,the natural logarithm of the explained variable’s one-period lag value(lnexc_i,t-1)、the natural logarithm of China’s gross domestic production（lngdpc）、the natural logarithm of foreign country’s gross domestic production（lngdpf）、the natural logarithm of distance between China and foreign country’s capital（lndis）、the natural logarithm of RMB’s real exchange rate index（lnreer）and the natural logarithm of structural similarity coefficient（lnS）as explanatory variables.The two-step system GMM method was used to analyze this model,which shows that the increase of industrial isomorphism between China and major countries can restrain China’s export to these countries significantly.Fourth,the empirical analysis about the impact of industrial isomorphism between China and major countries on China’s import trade,based on the theory of import function of Keynesianism I construct a dynamic panel data model,use China’s imports from 41 countries（imc）as explained variable,the explained variable’s one-period lag value(imc_i,t-1)、China’s gross domestic production（gdpc）、the annual average exchange rate of RMB to U.S.dollar（eru）and the structural similarity coefficient（S）as explanatory variables.The two-step system GMM method was also used to analyze this model,which shows the increase of industrial isomorphism between China and major countries can promote China’s imports from these countries significantly.Fifth,the conclusion is consistent with the analysis of Melitz’s heterogeneous enterprise trade model,which shows that China’s industrial competitiveness is relatively weak,and the level of intra-industry trade is relatively low.Some recommendations based on results:（1）Raise R&D efficiency,promote capability of technological development and innovation;（2）Continue to deepen reform and opening up,promote the development of trade liberalization;（3）Strengthen international competitiveness of China’s industries by improving the quality of local products;（4）Adopt different modes of international division of labor based on the industrial characteristics of different countries,promote industrial complementarity and common development;（5）Promote the development of big cities,big city circles,and big city belts;（6）Optimize the industrial structure and structure of export commodities,promote the development of intra-industry trade;（7）Encourage other countries’participation in the implementation of the“Belt and Road”Initiative actively,promote the common development of the world economy;（8）Adhere to the“cooperation and win-win”principle in“One Belt One Rode”strategy.