The Choice Of Chinese Oversea Foreign Direct Investment Under "the Belt And Road"

After more than thirty years since Reform and Opening, relying on exports and investment, China’s economy achieved significant growth. With continuous expansion of economic volume, the disadvantage of traditional economic growth pattern have become increasingly prominent. Problems such as damage caused by extensive economic to the environment, progressive recession of low-end manufacturing industry’s global competitiveness, widespread overcapacity at present stage, have become challenges of China’s economic sustainable development at new normal. The transformation and upgrading of China’s economic, and the adjustment of China’s position in international division of labor system, is actually imminent.In 2013 Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward to build "The Belt and Road ", namely the initiative to build "the Silk Road Economic Belt" and "the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road" together with countries in the three continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, which is not only one of the important ways to solve the Chinese economic problems at the present stage, but also indicates the determination and hope of China to participate in world economic cooperation in the future. Overseas Foreign Direct Investment, as the main way of China to participate in global economic integration, seizing the opportunity of "The Belt and Road", giving full play to the advantages of China, and to maximally realize the transfer of overcapacity and the further economic development maximizing the realization of the further economic development, has become one of the priorities of the current Chinese economic research. In fact, China’s overseas direct investment, especially how to select investment destination countries along "The Belt and Road", has not been fully researched. A large number of resources suffer losses due to the lapse selection of investment destination countries. This paper is aimed at this problem, through theoretical analysis and experience analysis method, selecting 25 countries along "The Belt and Road" and the export trade scale led by China’s overseas foreign direct investment in the past ten years as the research object. In order to make the limited resources can be fully utilized, after quantitatively analyze the revenue of China’s overseas foreign direct investment in the countries along "The Belt and Road", this paper put forward reasonable advice for selection of investment destination countries. In addition, in this paper, using envelopment analysis idea of the stochastic frontier gravity model, the export trade potentiality of countries along "The Belt and Road" is speculated, which provide a further analysis on the rationality of selection of investment destination countries.This paper consists of six chapters as follow:Chapter One:Introduction. Mainly describes the research background, purpose and research significance of investment along "The Belt and Road". At the same time, recalls existing research analysis according to different categories, and introduces research method and points of innovation. Chapter Two and Three, respectively discusses the present situation, causes and existing problems both China’s export trade and foreign direct investment under "B&R". And advises China should transfer excess capacity by these two ways at this stage. Chapter Four is the part of theoretical derivation. Through analyses the transmission mechanisms and influencing factors, make argument the possibility that China’s foreign direct investment can be able to stimulate ex-trade, and promote overcapacity delivery as the theoretical level. Chapter Five:Empirical Analysis. Based on the development of the traditional gravity model, compare unit export trade effect of foreign direct investment and trade potential level by countries with the gravity of stochastic frontier model containing investment variables. Support to provide experience for the selection of foreign direct investment in host countries. Summarize, as Chapter Six, summary of full text research content, and provide guidance advice for the future China’s investment choice along "B&R".These guidance can be the results of this papers. Firstly, "The Belt and Road" has a positive role in the transfer of excess capacity in China. Secondly, There are great differences between the countries along the line, by studying the export trade which caused by oversea foreign direct investment and the trade potential. The reasonable selection of the host country’s investment is of great significance. Finally, according the point of view of economic efficiency, China future oversea foreign direct investment along "B&R", should give priority to Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Sri Lanka. Investment to some countries in West Asia and South Asia should hold a relatively cautious attitude.