Research On Poverty Reduction Effect In China's Agricultural Growth

Poverty is a global problem,reducing poverty is an important goal that all countries are committed to achieving,research on poverty is also a hot topic in academia.There are contradictory conclusions in the academic community regarding the effects of poverty reduction in different industries.A party,as the representative of the World Bank believes that agriculture is a dominant industry for poverty alleviation,while the other believes that non-agricultural industries(secondary and tertiary industries)to have a more pronounced role in alleviating poverty.The reason for the contradiction in the existing research is that it does not take the close correlation between the three major industries into account.Therefore,the long-term balanced regression analysis of the three major industries is instability and it can't accurately reflect the poverty reduction effect of various industries.Since agriculture is the basic industry that has the closest connection with farmers' income,compared with the long-term role of poverty reduction in secondary and tertiary industries,agriculture has comparative advantages in poverty alleviation approaches such as the distribution of property rights.It can timely and effectively increase the income of the poor in the short term,therefore,this paper selects the most direct poverty-reducing agricultural industry as the research object for industrial poverty alleviation,and analyzes the stages and differences between long-term and short-term of poverty reduction effect.The content of this article is divided into two parts,one part is about the contradiction of the existing research,correlations between three industries are determined through the examination of industry relevance theory and the correlation coefficient between industries.Therefore,it is concluded that when making long-run equilibrium relationship analysis based on macroeconomic data,the three major industries cannot be subjected to regression analysis at the same time.In view of the significance of agricultural poverty reduction theory and the long-term equilibrium analysis of agriculture and other industries,this paper considers the elimination of secondary and tertiary industries and studies agriculture separately.In another part,studies are conducted on the stages and the differences between long-term and short-term effects of agricultural poverty reduction.First of all,this paper uses the Chow test to determine it has a structural breakpoint of the poverty reduction effect of agricultural economic growth in 2006.Therefore,error correction models can be established in 1978-2005 and 2007-2015 respectively,including long-term equilibrium models and short-term correction models.Error correction model results shows that compared with the former,in the latter stage,the poverty reduction effect of agricultural economic growth occurs a significant increase both in the long term and in the short term.In addition,the long-term and short-term differences in poverty reduction effects of agricultural economic growth have decreased in the latter stage,because the government has adopted economic policies that aim to reduce the income distribution gap.For the main conclusions of this paper,it can mainly put forward the following suggestions: emphasize the integration of the three industries,attach importance to the long-term poverty reduction effect of the industry,and strengthen the policy guidance role of the government in reducing poverty in agriculture.