Study On Spatial Effect Of Grain Price Fluctuation In China

The market of grain purchase and sale had been fully liberalized in 2004,have already implemented the purchase sale diversification management,and the price of grain was determined by the supply and demand of the market,the state made macro adjustment and control.The price policy was basically perfected in 2008.By the end of the “Twelve-five” period,the agriculture of China has achieved a “12 increase” in grain production and a “12-block”increase in farmers' income.At the same time,the imbalance of agricultural products supply and demand,structural excess is increasingly prominent,the government's macro-control of grain market is difficult to increase.In this background,studying the influence factors of China's grain,it can not only promote the development of agricultural modernization,guide the healthy operation of grain market,but also provide some reference for the promotion of agricultural supply side reform.At present,the research on the influencing factors of grain price assumes that the provinces and cities are independent of each other,and they mainly use the grain retail price index or the production price index as the interpreted variables,the multivariate regression model,GMM estimation and equilibrium correction model are used to analyze.But considering the spatial dependence and economic distance between the units,on study of grain price fluctuations is less.In order to better analyze the spatial effects of grain price fluctuations and reduce the influence of price policies on the fluctuation of grain price,this paper uses the Moran index,Geary index,and heat map to verify the spatial characteristics of grain prices in various regions of China based on panel data of various provinces and cities in China in 2007-2016.After analyzing the possible influence of various factors on the fluctuation of food price,the paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of consumption tendency,generation cost,inflation,natural disaster and resident purchasing power,and then establishes static spatial panel model and dynamic spatial panel model based on the adjacency relation weight matrix and the economic distance weighting matrix respectively,The paper studies the effect mechanism of grain price fluctuation and its influencing factors in China.The results show that there is significant positive spatial autocorrelation in grain price fluctuation in China,the price of food in the neighboring region plays an important role in the change of regional grain price,and the effect of grain production cost,residents consumption tendency,residents purchasing power and grain price on the current grain price is remarkable,and the influence of inflation on grain price is not significant.