Research On Methods Of Investment Estimation For Tight Oil's Development Projects

Tight oil becomes a new global hot spot in exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas after shale gas.Benefited from high oil price and progress of technology in previous years,tight oil was economic developed in North America,which leads to a significant change in supply of global crude oil.Tight oil resource is widespread and of high potential in China,but it is still in beginning and groping stage of exploration and development for tight oil in China.Compared with conventional oil,the development projects of tight oil are of large investment,high technically demanding and high risk,and continuously falling of crude oil price in recent years also bring a big challenge.These factors require scientific and effective methods to evaluate every tight oil development project.Investment estimation,as a key step of projects economic evaluation,requires scientific methods and accurate results,which have great influences on investment decisions.This thesis has studied the investment estimation methods for development projects of tight oil.Firstly,researches on tight oil's resources characteristics and key technologies were conducted to find out the differences between tight oil and conventional oil.Then,through analyzing its technological process and historical data,this thesis establishes a set of investment estimation methods,including methods of drilling investment estimation based on drilling cycle under daily-paid basis and casing program of the horizontal wells under footage cost basis;methods of fracturing investment estimation based on fracturing segments and crack length and methods of surface project investment based on scale of capacity and differences on geography and terrain.At last,combined with a tight oil development project in China,this thesis estimates the drilling investments,fracturing investments and surface project investments according to its actual data.Through comparing the real investment data with investments estimated,the validity of this set of estimation methods for tight oil development projects can be confirmed.