Bayesian Game Analysis Of Project Bidding Strategy With Incomplete Information

With the socio-economic development and the arrival of the information era, biddingmechanism in china has developed rapidly after the late start. Not only Chinese domesticgovernment agencies, enterprises and institutions of hardware and software constructionproject have drew into the bidding mechanism, but our companies also respond to go abroadfor BOT bidding. For an example, in2007, the State Grid Corporation of a coalition unitedwith other two local companies of the Philippines as for the Group, and won the bidding inthe State Grid Corporation of the Philippines franchise auction’ meeting. Finally, with$3.95billion bid, the State Grid Corporation obtained the operation right of the Philippine gridpower in the next25years. Apparently, this example greatly enhanced the competitivenessand influence of our companies in the world. In all, Domestic and foreign constructionprojects and the bidding mechanism has improved the work efficiency, and promoted theinternational marketization.Therefore, the bidding strategy of project has been a hot for researchers and scholars.The common bidding strategies in the last years included tree methods, such as probabilityanalysis, game theory and decision tree analysis method which have lots of drawbacks, so I builta new model on the basis of previous research to study the project bidding strategy deeply.This research is significant and valuable in engineering. The main work includes thefollowing aspects:(A) Because the relationship between the bidder and the tender or the bidder andthe bidder can be regarded as multiple games with incomplete information, so thispaper establish the Bayesian game model and analysts the bidding behaviors under thelowest bid and composite base method, respectively.(B) The introduction of risk aversion factors in the game model in order to analyst therisk aversion on bidding strategy.(C) Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation decision-making method to analyze theimpact of bidders risk aversion factor weights, and then to quantify the risk aversion factor.