The Study Of Supply Chain In Agricultural Products With Random Yield And Amelioration

With the improvement of people's living standards,agricultural products,as an essential part of human life,the output and demand for agricultural products has increased year by year.Unlike general industrial products,the uncertainty of output and value-added improvement of agricultural products make the mismatch between supply and demand become a major problem in the current supply chain of agricultural products.On the one hand,due to the influence of natural environmental factors such as weather,soil,and insect pests,there is a great deal of uncertainty in the output of agricultural products,and it is difficult to accurately predict the output from the input;On the other hand,there is still a unique growth stage showing the value-added improvement characteristics of the output after agricultural products can be sold as finished products.Time point decision of harvest and output which is almost non-existent in the industrial supply chain has increased dimensions and difficulty of supply chain and decision-making of agricultural products.Based on the two important characteristics of agricultural products which are different from the industrial products,that is,the uncertainty of output and the improvement of value-added,firstly this paper studies the agricultural supply chain with non-decision variables at the time of harvest,sets up a decision model for input and pricing of agricultural product,and analyses the effect of harvest time on order quantity and input safety factor.Secondly,the decision-making model of input and harvest of agricultural product supply chain was constructed under the two circumstances when the main decision-making point was the farmer household and the acquisition enterprise,in order to analyze the impact of parameters cost of unit improvement,maturity elasticity coefficient of demand,etc.,on decisions such as price,time of harvest,input of agricultural and so on,and use the Two-part Tariff to coordinate the supply chain.Finally,the growth stage of agricultural products was divided into growth period and improvement period,and constructs the model of agricultural products supply chain considering the uncertainty of two-level output,the effects of different harvesting time points on the input safety factor and the harvest safety factor,and the influence of the output uncertainty during the growth period and the improvement period on the input safety factor and the harvest safety factor are analyzed,and the risk sharing contract is designed for optimal coordination of the supply chain.The research shows that when the time of harvesting is a non-decision variable,the retail price and input amount of centralized decision is less than that of decentralization decision,market demand(order quantity),input volume,and profit function are concave functions of harvest time.When the harvest time is a decision variable,whether it is for farmer household and the acquisition enterprise,the profit when farmers decide the harvest time is better than the profit at the point of time when acquisition enterprise decide the harvest time,the decrease sensitivity of market demand to the maturity of agricultural products,or the increase of the unit improvement cost will cause farmers to reduce the input of agricultural resources under uncertainty of output,and the Two-part Tariff contracts coordinate the input and harvest decision-making behavior of farmer household and the acquisition enterprise.When considering the uncertainty of the two-level output,the safety factor of the growth period under the centralized decision(risk sharing contract)is greater than that in growth period under the independent uncoordinated decision.The safety factor of the improved period under the centralized decision(risk sharing contract)is less than the independent uncoordinated decision.The risk covenant contract can effectively coordinate the investment and collection decisions of farmers and acquisition companies.