Evaluation And Prediction On Ecological Security Of Cultivated Land In Huachi County

Cultivated land is the foundation of food production and is China's most precious resource.With the high-speed economic and social development,the human activities have become increasingly disturbing to the ecological environment of the cultivated land,which has led to an unstable ecological security of cultivated land.To carry out research on the evaluation and prediction of cultivated land ecological security,accurately grasp the dynamics of cultivated ecological security.It provides important theoretical and practical guidance for reasonable planning,efficient use,and remediation of farmland resources.This article starts from the actual situation in Huachi,based on the PSR(pressure-state-response)model,sixteen indicators such as population density and effective irrigation area were selected to construct an evaluation index system and weights.On this basis,a multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the ecological security of cultivated land in Huachi town and its townships from 2010 to 2015.The GM(1,1)model is used to predict the ecological security of cultivated land in Huachi and its townships from 2016 to 2020.Using the obstacle degree model to diagnose the main obstacles to the ecological security of cultivated land in Huachi and its townships.The research results accurately grasped the dynamics of farmland ecological security and its changing trends in the future,and defined the main perspectives and strategies for future protection and improvement of farmland ecological security in Huachi County and its townships.The study draws the following main conclusions:(1)From 2010 to 2015,the ecological safety value of cultivated land in Huachi County has been continuously increased from 0.5541(level III)to 0.6677(level II).However,the value of cultivated land ecological security varies greatly among townships and townships: Nanliang Township and Linzhen Township have the largest increase of 0.2767 and 0.2639 respectively;Townships of Yuele Town and Rouyuan Town have the smallest increase,respectively,and increase respectively.0.1084,0.0559.(2)From 2016 to 2020,the ecological security value of cultivated land in Huachi County will continue to increase,from 0.7355 to 0.8833.However,the situation in the towns and villages is still quite different: the two townships in Nanliang Township and Qiaohe Township have the largest increase,increasing by 0.1767 and 0.1731 respectively.The townships of Yuele Town and Rouyuan Town have the smallest increase,which has increased respectively.0.0696,0.0542;In addition to the four townships of Yuele Town,Rouyuan Town,Qiaochuan Township and Qiaohe Township,the ecol ogical security level of cultivated land remains the same(Level II),and the remaining 11 townships are upgraded from Level II to Level I.(3)From 2010 to 2015,the main obstacles to the ecological security of cultivated land in Huachi County are rural per capita net income,grain yield per unit area,effective irrigation area,disaster index,and total agricultural machinery power.However,from 2016 to 2020,the grain yield per unit area will increase.The disaster index no longer becomes a major obstacle,on the contrary it increases the multiple cropping index and the level of urbanization.There are certain differences in barrier factors between townships and townships,and on the basis of summarizing the existing successful experiences,according to the obstacle factors of Huachi County and its townships obtained from the study,the improvement and control of cultivated land ecological security shall be strengthened according to local conditions.(4)This paper uses the PSR-GM(1,1)model to evaluate and predict the ecological security of cultivated land in Huachi County,and analyzes the obstacle factors.The results are in line with the actual situation in Huachi County,indicating that PSR-GM(1,1)The model has high credibility in the evaluation and prediction of farmland ecological security,and the method is feasible.