Research On The Human Reliability Of Construction Project Manager

Construction industry is one of the important pillar industries of the national economy in our country.But constructional engineering quality,safety and cost problems are always the hot social issue in our country.A main influence factors in these problems is the human factor,especially in the process of project construction,so it can’t be ignored.Construction project manager is the key figure in the process of engineering project,and has important influence on project performance.However,most of the relevant researches for the project manager mainly aim at competency model and index system,which belong to prior evaluation.These studies paid less attention to dynamic evaluation and control for project manager in the process of the project.In construction engineering project manager as the legal representative of enterprise on engineering projects is significant guarantee for quality,schedule and cost.While as ordinary people,the project manager should affected by itself and external conditions.Human error is inevitable.Therefore it has the very vital significance to understand and define human reliability and error of construction project manager and carry on further research.This research have some implications for project manager to further improve own errors,and then provide support for the performance and successful completion of the project.This paper sums up and concludes the related research achievements.Based on these studies,the involved concepts are defined,and the model of six assumptions are put forward.The basic principle of project manager’s error is analyzed by reference analysis ideas about human factor.This paper divides indexes about human reliability model of project manager into three dimensions including individual,team and organization dimensions.Brainstorming and expert judgment methods are used to identify all factors in these three dimensions.Then this thesis analyzes the relationship and influence mechanism between all factors and project manager’s error with fault tree technique,and determines the initial probability and conditional probability of all events.Furthermore,in accordance with the conversion principle of fault tree into bayesian networks,the fault tree model of human reliability of construction project manager are translated into bayesian networks.Probabilistic reasoning part achieves forward and backward analysis,and help recognize the posteriori probability and the greatest causal chain.Sensitivity analysis for the root events is completed on the basis of the diagnosis reasoning,and evaluation results are obtained.Combining the theory of leadership style,nine kinds of scene simulations are designed and the corresponding probabilistic results of human error of construction project manager are calculated.Finally,according to the research results,this article proposes some suggestions to improving project manager’s reliability and reduce human error.