Research On Investment Decision Of Petroleum Company Based On Real Option Game Model

Petroleum companies have the characteristics of large investment scale,high risk coefficient,strong complexity,and they also face great uncertainty in the investment process,which brings difficulties to their investment decisions.With the international oil prices continuing to fall and competition intensifying since the second half of 2014,many petroleum companies appeared the phenomenon to make ends meet,facing a crisis of survival.So the correct investment decision is crucial for petroleum companies.Traditional investment decision methods are based on financial analysis from the perspective of economic consideration singly,ignoring the investment flexibility from the uncertainty of the investment environment and threats from competitors.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to talk about investment decision-making methods which is more in line with the actual market and study the investment strategy of petroleum companies in the competition environment.Based on the option game theory,this paper analyzes the investment strategy of petroleum companies under the uncertain and competitive environment.First of all,the paper sum up the results of previous studies and deficiencies through sorting out the traditional investment decision-making methods and options game theory and research status,and the paper also compared the advantages of options game theory.Secondly,the paper established the application framework of the option game model in the investment decision of petroleum companies.Then the characteristics of the investment project,the uncertainty of the investment project,and the game characteristics and option characteristics are described.Thirdly,the paper constructed the compound option game model of asymmetric dual oligopoly enterprises,getting the value function and the investment threshold of different roles and discussing the demarcation point of possible equilibrium state and specific investment strategy of each state.Finally,the paper conducted the numerical analysis with an example of oil and gas exploration and development project.Then the paper judged balanced state of petroleum company under the premise of the given model parameters,determining the final investment strategy and verifying the construct of the option game model using simulation of the MATLAB software.The economic value and strategic value of oil and gas resources is self-evident.Petroleum companies are direct suppliers of oil and gas resources,and their economic benefits may affect the whole world pattern.The compound option game model of asymmetric dual oligopoly monopoly enterprises fully considers the characteristics of petroleum investment projects,and it is not only rich in the traditional investment decision methods,it also has great theoretical significance and reference value for enhancing the investment decision-making level of petroleum companies,ensuring the flexibility and rationality of enterprise investment decision,and realizing maximal profits.