Research On Natural Gas Consumption And Economic Growth Based On Panel Quantile Regression

As the third largest natural gas consumption market,China's natural gas consumption growth potential is tremendous.The 13 th Five Year Plan pointed out to develop natural gas energy,natural gas energy consumption is becoming an important factor of China's economic development.Therefore,it has a very important significance to study the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in China.This paper analysed the mechanism of natural gas consumption to economic growth,concluded that natural gas consumption could influence economic growth through cost price and squeeze out traditional fossil energy,while couldn't confirm the ultimate effect is positive or negative.Based on the modified Cobb-Douglas production function,using 30 provinces panel data for the period of 2000-2014 to demonstrate.The result revealed that when natural gas consumption increase 1% economic growth will increase 0.0430%.Then using Panel Quantile Regression to estimate 10 quantile economic growth and natural gas consumption.Finding the natural gas consumption coefficient showed a fluctuant increasing trend with economic develop.Concluded that the higher level of economic development the more effect natural gas consumption to economic growth.Finally,to verify the PQR conclusions,the panel data were divided into three groups according to the scale of economic.Using those three panel data for further empirical research,finally comes to the conclusion that the higher level of economic development,the more effect natural gas consumption to economic growth.Based on the natural gas current situation and the empirical research conclusions,some policy implications were proposed,like deepening natural gas reform,optimizing the pricing mechanism,improving the infrastructure construction,ensuring the stable supply,governments' encourage and guidance,to promote natural gas consumption market development.