Study On The Relationship Between GDP And Electricity Consumption In China Based On Quantile Regression

About the relevant research of relationship between GDP and electricity consumption, the scholars mainly concentrated in study on the causal relationship between the two variables. Some researches on the regression analysis between the two variables, scholars assumed that in the different level of GDP, the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption is fixed, that is, the regression coefficient is a constant. Based on the theoretical and practical research, the paper found that the relationship between C hina’s GDP and electricity consumption is not fixed with the economic development increasing. Therefore, the paper introduces quantile regression method to verify the flexible relationship between GDP and electricity consumption under the different level of GDP.First, this paper proposes research assumptions based on the theoretical research and practical research, and then choices the research model, as well as to process and analysis the relevant data. Finally, this paper uses panel data to verify and investigate the research assumptions based on the quantile regression mode, the result suggested that:(1)The paper compares the results on the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption with different models, studies show that the linear model can describe the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in C hina, and the research suggests that assumption 1 is tenable.(2)This paper researched the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption, the relationship between GDP in each industry and electricity consumption based on quantile regression method, the results suggest that the marginal effect of electricity consumption has flexible influence on GDP and GDP in each industry: the marginal effect of electricity consumption to GDP increases when quantile value increases. The research imply that assumption 2 is tenable.(3)Based on assumption 3, the paper studied the flexible effects deeply based on the economic development level, which contact to the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption. Further analysis of variables shows that the three aspects of economic development(economic scale, urbanization and industrialization) have great influences on the relationship between GDP and electricity consumption, and it has differences in each stage of economic development.(4)In each stage of economic development, the marginal effect of electricity consumption to GDP changes with the change of GDP quantiles. The results further verify the assumption2.