Comparative Study Of The Impact Of Population Aging On National Saving Rate And Its Structure

With the deepening of the population aging worldwide,the social problems caused by the aging of the population have become the challenges that all countries must face.For China,the aging population is also gradually increasing and accelerating.And,existing research shows that the population aging may have an impact on the national savings rate,and the pension system is one of the most important factors..In recent years,China's high-speed economic growth has been based on the “high savings,high investment” model,which means that changes in savings will affect China's economic growth in the future.Therefore,based on pension system perspective,it is particularly important to explore the impact of population aging on the national saving rate.Through literature review,it found that most existing studies have focused on the research of population aging and national saving rate or residents' savings,ignoring the population aging and the saving rate of government and enterprise.And,there is very little research from the perspective of the pension system.Besides,most existing studies have paid more attention to empirical study rather than theoretical research.So,firstly,this paper,based on the perspective of pension system,plans to explore theoretically the impact of population aging on the national saving structure to find out the role of pension system,putting forward empirical hypotheses based on the above theoretical derivation,then conducting empirical study to proof the empirical hypothesis.Finally,combined with theoretical analysis and empirical conclusion,this paper puts forward reasonable and effective policy suggestions for China to deal with population aging based on the successful experience of other countries.After considering the factors such as geographical location,saving habits,economic development level and the time of entering an aging country,this paper selects France,South Korea and China as the objects of comparison,comparing their population aging,national saving rate and structure,pension system.It found that China's population aging is faster than France and South Korea,China's national savings structure shows a “three high” situation,and China's pension system is not perfect,but a multi-level and multi-pillar pension system have been established in France and South Korea.Then,based on the pension system,this paper analyzes the influence of population aging on household saving rate,corporate saving rate and government saving rate theoretically,analyzing the role of pension system and putting forward three empirical hypotheses.And,collecting data and establishing VAR model explore the impact of population aging on national saving rate in three countries to demonstrate three empirical hypotheses.Considering China's national conditions,theoretical derivation and empirical results,this paper puts forward four feasible suggestions for China to cope with the saving effect of population aging.The first is to improve China's pension system and the elderly financial service system;the second is to increase labor productivity and expand the scale of the workforce;the third is to develop the “silver hair” industry to find new economic growth points;the fourth is to improve the relevant policies of the “two-child” policy.This paper provides a new research perspective for the impact of population aging on national saving rate,which has certain research value and significance.