Uncertain Optimization Of Regional Land Resources Based On Chance-constrained Programming Model And Spatial Suitability Competition Method

As an important carrier of the occurrence and change of natural environment,land resource is not only the material guarantee of human existence and reproduction,but also the important driving force of social development and economic construction.However,with the rapid development of society and economy,the contradiction between the supply of limited land and the unlimited demand in certain regions intensifies.Thus,under the constraint of limited land resources,making a scientific and rational plan of land use planning is the key to realizing the sustainable development of society and economy.On the contrary,the current plan is lack of the consideration of future land use uncertainties,which leads to the planning expectation being far from reality and the planning scheme frequently ineffective.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the optimal allocation of land resources under uncertain conditions.This article chooses the Yangzhou which is located in Jiangsu province as an example.There are many ecological protection areas,so the land resources and environmental has greater restraint intensity,meanwhile,with the rapid development of economy,the demand conflict between land use departments and land resources is exacerbating,which leads lots of the uncertainty in the future.,resulting in the former land planning and implementation of the results of a far cry.Therefore,the study of land use uncertainty optimization based on Yangzhou can not only verify the theory and method of uncertain optimization,but also have some referential significance for the study of the uncertain optimization of other regions.First of all,this paper examines the uncertain environment faced by land use and further analyzes the category of uncertain factors of land use,in order to understand the process of uncertainty affecting land using,in order to eliminate or reduce the impact of uncertainty on land use optimization,the three-dimensional classification of land use uncertainty is put forward.It is helpful to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the uncertain optimization model by identifying the nodes that occur in the specific land use optimization scheme.Secondly,according to the actual situation of Yangzhou,the distribution of land use indices of Yangzhou is obtained by expert investigation method,and using the different confidence level of uncertain index to restore Yangzhou's uncertain environment of land use in the future,at the same time,for exploring the impact of uncertainty on the future land use structure optimization results,the confidence level of uncertain index is divided into 5 constrained strength intervals,as a result,the optimal land use structure in the 2030 Yangzhou's 5 scenarios under the uncertainty environment can be calculated by the chance-constrained programming model;Finally,based on the results of the 5 kinds of land use structure optimization,a spatial suitability competition method is designed according to the criterion of suitability evaluation.By using this method,the optimal spatial optimal layout of 5 scenarios under different confidence levels can be obtained,and the spatial optimal allocation of land resources is finally completed.The final result of optimization can provide more scientific and reasonable basis for land use planning and compilation.The specific conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.The optimization of land use is in an uncertain environment,so planners should establish an uncertain optimization concept.The uncertain environment of land use can be divided into internal and external uncertain environment by planning subject as the boundary,according to the different sources of uncertainty factors,the uncertain factors in land use optimization can be divided into external uncertainties and internal uncertainties,among which there are uncertainty factors and uncertain main factors.The external uncertainties mainly include uncertain economic factors,uncertain social factors and uncertain ecological factors.Furthermore,in order to effectively reduce the impact of future uncertainties on land use optimization,the land use uncertainty is divided into three dimensions of position,level and essence,and corresponding solutions are put forward according to the specific uncertainty content,so when optimizing land use under uncertain conditions,we should establish the correct concept of uncertain optimization.2.The distribution of uncertain indices and the embedding optimization model are the key to the optimization of land use structure under uncertain conditions.There are many uncertainties in the land use environment,and the uncertain index as the bridge between the uncertain factors and the optimization model can materialize the uncertain expression in the land optimization.The uncertainty prediction index is not the only value,but is a certain probability distribution of the variables,which can fully restore the uncertain environment of land use under different confidence level,and how to embed the uncertain index into the optimization model is also an important issue.The distribution of the uncertain index represents the information level of uncertain factors,Therefore,it is reasonable to embed it in the optimization model,which directly affects the optimization level and the results of land use structure under uncertain conditions.3.The uncertain mathematical model can effectively deal with the optimization of land use structure under the uncertain environment,which has been applied in the fields of water resources,energy power,industrial pollution and other environmental resources,so it can be said that uncertain optimization and management is playing an important role in achieving sustainable utilization of resources and environment.Similarly,land use is also in the uncertain environment,so using the uncertain mathematical model to optimize the allocation of regional land resources can reduce the impact of future uncertainties on the optimization of land resources,so as to effectively improve the level of optimal allocation scheme.4.The Essence of spatial optimization of land resources is to obtain the land use layout under the situation of maximizing the space suitability.The goal of spatial optimal allocation is to maximize the overall suitability,so the evaluation of the suitability of different land types is the basis of spatial optimal allocation.Firstly,the evaluation factors of the spatial suitability of different land use are determined by the expert investigation according to the natural self-care status of the research area,and make it spatially.Then the Spatial Suitability of different land use is calculated on the basis of spatial superposition based on the weight of different factors identified by the experts.Finally,under the constraints of the optimized land use structure,the grid element with the largest space suitability is transformed into the corresponding land type,thus the optimal layout of the space resources is completed,which conforms to the basic requirements of spatial optimal allocation of land use.