Study On Financial Risk Early Warning Of PPP Projects

For the first time since the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee that allows social capital to provide public infrastructure and services for the public by way of franchising,PPP(Public-Private Partnership)revenue sharing,risk sharing,value,life-long cycle management and other unique advantages can be put to good use,high-quality resources of government and social capital are able to integrate scientifically.To a certain extent,improves the quality and effectiveness of public goods and services,and promotes the supply-side structural reform and new-type urbanization.At the same time,it actively creates innovative financing mechanisms,the reasonable transformation of government functions,fiscal expenditure burden,alleviates the contradiction in our society,enhances the general public well-being,highlights the characteristics of socialist China the spirit of the new era,and meets the demand of a new era of socialist.However,due to the application of PPP in China is relatively later than abroad,has not yet formed a legal system which regulates the operation of the PPP.It is difficult for individual local governments to clearly and accurately understand PPP and to effectively supervise the implementation of PPP projects.During the practicing of PPP projects,many hidden dangers have caused the PPP project to have a high degree of financial risk in the activities of financing,investment and capital supply,and it has to be in a predicament that the financial crisis may break out at any time.To help PPP projects to get out of this dilemma and promote their steady landing,it should assist the relevant managers to do good work of financial risk early warning.That will bear the brunt of the financial risk control in the safety range of stakeholders can bear,create a favorable financial environment.To provide financial support for the PPP project successfully completed and long-term operation,also give theoretical references for the executives,experts and scholars of PPP projects.This thesis aims at predicting the financial risk crisis of the PPP project in a timely and effective way,and helps financial risk managers to do good work of the early warning of financial risk.First of all,based on the relevant research literature at home and abroad,and listen to the advice of experts and scholars in the field,we set up a financial risk early warning system for PPP projects which integrates financial and non-financial indicators.Depend on the onlinesurvey tool of "the questionnaire star",the importance of PPP projects financial risk factors is investigated.Combined with SPSS software and reliability analysis method,correlation analysis method and K-mean clustering analysis method,which prove the credibility of the questionnaire is good,also realize the optimization of financial risk early warning index and verify its classification.The financial risk early warning model is established by the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of being integrated analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method.The scope of financial risk early warning is set up,and the rank of financial risk is definite.Secondly,with the help of the internal data of the L subway project financial data,this kind of PPP project is empirically analyzed.Finally,a series of detailed response measures of the financial risk early warning for PPP projects are put forward,so as to promote PPP projects financial risk early warning work to play a more comprehensive and powerful positive effect.