Research On Green Development Of Chinese Provinces Based On System Dynamics Simulation

China has ushered in a new period of economic transformation.The original economic development model of high energy consumption,high pollution,high resource utilization and low return has been transformed.China urgently needs to realize the "green development model".Green development is to coordinate economic,environmental,resource and social relations and promote common economic-environmental development.There has been a lot of research on the mode of green development and coordinated development of economy and environment in China.The predecessors have accumulated a lot of experience in research methods,experimental design,model selection and research theory.However,the original research seldom focuses on the research object of each province in China,often on the specific study of a province or on the general study of the whole country.Universal research focuses on the relationship between economy and environment.Starting from the current situation of China's economy and environment,based on the study of a large number of documents,the corresponding national green development call will help to fill the gaps in the existing research,enrich the scope and field of system dynamics research,and put forward development policy recommendations for the development of four different types of provinces in China according to local conditions and time conditions.Based on the research of Kuznets curve and the theory of emergency development and system dynamics,this paper establishes the classification index of provinces and the system dynamics model of green development of provinces.In the classification of provinces,the classification basis is divided into two kinds: economic development index and environmental pollution index,which include GDP,per capita GDP,fixed assets investment,and so on.Per capita disposable income of residents,consumption level of residents,total social consumer goods,proportion of primary industry,proportion of secondary industry,proportion of tertiary industry,waste water discharge,COD discharge,ammonia nitrogen discharge,sulfur dioxide discharge,nitrogen oxide discharge,smoke(powder)dust discharge.According to these indicators,the provinces in China are divided into four categories: those with good economic and environmental development,those with poor economic environment,those with better economic environment and those with better economic environment.On this basis,four typical provinces,Beijing,Shandong,Tianjin and Shanxi,are selected to carry out system dynamics modeling.The SD model of typical provinces is fixed.The SD model is built mainly referring to the previous research results and adjusting and replacing some variables according to the purpose of this paper,and the economic subsystem,environmental subsystem and resource subsystem are constructed.Social subsystem.Through the initial settings,the provinces were simulated from 2007 to 2025.From the initial simulation,problems were found in each province.According to the characteristics of each province,variables were adjusted to simulate the state of policy implementation,and the state of variables was adjusted through simulation.Finally,according to the situation of each province,it is concluded that Beijing is the most suitable province for green development in the country;Shandong Province should coordinate environmental pollution and economic development as soon as possible,focusing on financial technology investment,medical investment and environmental investment;Tianjin has insufficient momentum for economic development,and its economic structure needs further optimization,mainly to increase investment in fixed assets and livelihood.Productive investment;Shanxi Province needs to coordinate the economy and environment,and accelerate economic and environmental development.The measures needed are economic growth and environmental protection.