Analysis Of Default Risk Propagation Process And Simulation In Collaborative Innovation Projects

Collaborative innovation projects can break industry restrictions,integrate resources,and maximize innovation benefits.Meeting their needs is the premise for stakeholders to participate in the project.If their basic needs cannot be met,default risk may arise and stakeholders are unwilling to undertake project tasks.At the same time,the collaborative innovation projects have a intensive flow of personnel,funds and information,and risk can be spread among the project subjects based on them,which increases the instability of projects.It is of practical significance to clarify the process of default risk propagation and propose management strategies to improve project performance and success rate.At present,the research on the default risk propagation mainly focuses on industrial clusters and supply chain companies,less attention is paid to the risk propagation in projects.However,due to the diversified backgrounds of stakeholders in collaborative innovation projects,the influence of project network characteristics and individual differences should be considered to describe the default risk propagation process in collaborative innovation projects.Focusing on the study of risk propagation between two project subjects is difficult to reflect the overall law.Analyzing the default risk propagation process from the perspective of network can reflect the project characteristics into the model.The stakeholders involved in the project and their connections constitute the network carrier of risk dissemination.Most of the risk propagation networks in existing studies rely on the direct generation of complex network models,which assume that the probability of risk propagation between network nodes is fixed,without considering the impact of the individual differences of nodes and network structure on risk propagation.This paper constructs a default risk propagation network in the context of collaborative innovation projects:referring to Quality Function Matrix and Responsibility Allocation Matrix,matching tasks and stakeholders to obtain network nodes,using Risk Matrix to determine the initial default risk level of nodes,taking a random number within the level to quantify the node;judging whether there is a relationship between tasks and needs to identify the network relationships,quantifying network relationship based on task difficulty,and form a weighted default risk propagation network.Taking the network as a carrier,the quantitative analysis of the default risk propagation process can be realized.Based on the model hypothesis,the risk propagation process between two network nodes is clarified,and the influence of node risk control cost,network structure,relationship strength and other factors on the process is quantified.Considering the diffusion law of default risk in time dimension and space dimension,it can be extended to the risk propagation process on the network.Aiming at the risk propagation process,the number of risk-saturated nodes,the average default risk of the network and the change of node default risk are set as the evaluation indexes of risk propagation.Designing an algorithm to simulate the default risk propagation process of a typical collaborative innovation project,the results shows that the default risk propagation in the project presents obvious stage characteristics.The risk control cost of nodes and network structure will affect the scale of risk propagation,and the propagation can be effectively controlled by optimizing network structure,enhancing network coordination and setting up the risk reserve.Based on the construction of collaborative innovation project default risk propagation network,this paper defines the dynamic default risk propagation process,summarizes the law of risk propagation through the quantification and simulation of the process,and proposes risk control strategies suitable for project scenarios,which expands the current research on risk propagation.Further studied can focus on the influence of network relationships strength changes and nodes entrance or exit on the default risk propagation process.