Study On The Optimization Of Economy-energy-environment (3E) System Under Uncertainty

With the steady development of China's economy and the speeding up of the industrialization and the urbanization in recent years,the national economy continues to increase and people's living standards have also been improved.However,the energy shortage and environmental pollution problems brought by the economic development has serious conflict with demand for the national sustainable development.Therefore,the study for coordinative development and optimization problem of the Energy-Economic-Environment(3E)system has important theoretical and practical significance.This issue set Urumqi as a study case.Firstly,a Energy-Economic-Environment system for coordinative development evaluation index system was built based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method and entropy value method.On the basis of this,a 3E system optimization model under the uncertain conditions was established,by using uncertainty theory and introducing the interval planning method.The results showed that the 3E system of Urumqi was in the condition of imbalance on the whole,the economic system developed quickly,but the development level of the environment and energy systems were relatively low,which seriously affected the coordinated development of 3E system.At the same time,by using scenario analysis method the issue got the target of industrial structure,the way of energy utilization,air pollution control planning for Urumqi of different level of development and policy guidance such as export-driven economic situation and the environment oriented situation.In the end,this study provided a scientific and reasonable decision basis for city managers.