The Measurement And Decomposition Of Global Carbon Intensity From The Perspective Of Supply-Demand Coupling And Open Economy

Carbon emissions is one of the focuses of the international community's attention,political game,and diplomatic negotiation.The controversy and debate have not ceased after the conclusion of the Paris agreement,and is mainly related to the open economic system.For example,there is a dispute between production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibility under the supply-demand coupling;In the context of the deepening of the division in the production stage and process,there is facing new challenges of indirect carbon emissions measurement and distribution in intermediate goods trade channels;The open economy brings carbon leakage,but it also has a positive impact on the distribution of interests of all countries such as the flow of value added,the internal conflict between trade policy and climate policy may arise,if only carbon emissions are concerned and the essence of carbon emissions derived from the economic activity are ignored.Therefore,identifying and analyzing the characteristics of global carbon emissions from the dimension perspective,including supply and demand,carbon emissions and added value,intermediate and final products,developed and developing countries,unit contribution and factor contribution,are of theoretical and practical significance for clarifying the responsibilities and contributions of emission reduction,coordinating emissions reduction policies and trade policies under open economy,and promoting emission reduction.Different from the traditional research perspective of carbon intensity and carbon emissions under the open economy,based on the ICIO model,this paper constructs various types of carbon intensity indicators.The world input-output tables of the WIOD database are used to measure various types of carbon intensity in the world and 41 countries or regions in 1995-2009.Different from carbon emission studies,only the driving factors are decomposed,besides the decomposition of carbon intensity based on LMDI method,this paper decomposes unit contribution to carbon intensity changes based on the attribution decomposition,which not only decomposes the contribution of countries to global carbon intensity,but also decomposes the contribution of different channels both non-international trade and international trade to the change of carbon intensity.The measurement results show that carbon intensity is more convergent than the total emission constraint index,and carbon intensity as emission constraint index is more likely to reach emission reduction agreement at the global level.The production-based total carbon intensity(PBCI)and consumption-based total carbon intensity(CBCI)showed significant differences in HCI and LCI.The carbon intensity of LCI countries in the production-based perspective would be underestimated emission responsibility and overestimated contribution to global intensity reduction,while the HCI countries were the opposite.Of course,on the basis of consumption-based responsibility,we also ignore the positive contribution of LCI countries in the decline in global domestic demand carbon intensity(PBCID),intermediate product export carbon intensity(PBCII)and final product export carbon intensity(PBCIF).Under the coupling relationship between supply and demand,the common responsibility of production and consumption is of great significance for building a fair and sustainable new pattern of international climate.HCI countries' participation in the global value chain's location and way and resource endowments determine that their PBCID was usually greater than CBCI,and domestic carbon intensity(CBCID),intermediate product import carbon intensity(CBCIhII),final product import carbon intensity(CBCIF1)and indirect trade carbon intensity(CBCIIT)were less than PBCIIE and PBCIFE.In addition,the environmental costs of trade were much higher than that of non-trade,PBCIIE andCBCIII were higher than PBCIFE andCBCIFI,compared with non-international trade channels,the contribution of international trade to the decline of total carbon intensity was very weak or even negative.This also implies that the decline in carbon intensity related to international trade will leave more space for carbon reduction for the world.The further decline of carbon intensity in HCI countries will be another key to global intensity reduction.It is found that the decline of global carbon intensity was entirely contributed by the LCI countries,to some extent,the HCI countries were dragging the global green economic transformation.Factor decomposition results show that the value-added structure and energy structure inhibited the decline of carbon intensity in LCI countries such as China and Russia.The imported products in the US and Japan had no significant decrease due to the negative effects of energy intensity and emission factors.