Research On The Conduction Relationship Of Risk Factors In Ecological PPP Projects

The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China comprehensively expounded the strategic plan for accelerating the reform of ecological civilization system,promoting green development and building a beautiful China.As one of the important components of the "five in one" of the overall national development layout,ecological construction has been rapidly developed.The strong support of national policies has led to a rapid increase in the number and volume of ecological PPP projects and the upsurge in the construction of ecological PPP projects across the country.However,the construction of ecological projects using the PPP model is still in a stage of rapid development.It is faced with such issues as the changing political environment,ecological sustainability and many stakeholders.These problems have greatly enhanced the complexity of risk management in ecological PPP projects.These problems increase the complexity of ecological PPP project risk management.Research on the conduction relationship between risk factors of ecological PPP projects can analyze the complexity of risk.Therefore,this paper mainly studies the relationship between risk factors of ecological PPP project and provides important management inspiration for risk management.This paper first builds the interpretative structural modeling of ecological PPP project.Based on the literature analysis and expert investigation,the risk factors are obtained through the process of primary identification and secondary identification.The conduction relationship between risk factors are obtained through direct judgment and indirect revision process.Finally the risk adjacency matrix is formed.Then,we calculate the matrix of risk reachability by calculating the adjacency matrix,and find the reachable set,the prior set and the intersection of the two sets of risk factors.Based on the above three sets of solutions,the layered results of the ecological PPP project interpretation structure model were obtained through multiple iterations,and finally the structural model of the ecological PPP project risk factor interpretation was obtained.Then,this paper analyzes the constructed interpretative structural modeling of the ecological PPP project.The ecological PPP project risk factor interpretative structural modeling starts from the project's entire system and fully expresses the conduction relationship between risk factors.This paper first analyzes the structural model of risk factors from the perspective of the model as a whole,and concludes that it is characterized by multiple levels,multiple conduction paths,and complex conduction relationships between levels.Then,this paper analyzes each risk conduction path of the model characterization,and concludes that different risk factors have different roles in the model,and the conduction relationship between the risk factors is complicated.In the ecological PPP project risk factor interpretative structural modeling,there are differences in the length of the conduction path between risk factors,and the different lengths of the conduction path have different degrees of complexity.Different lengths of conduction paths also illustrate the cross-level effects that exist between risks.Then according to the specific role of risk factors in the interpretative structural modeling,the risk factors are classified into source category risk,transition category risk and convergence category risk.The government decision-making risk,policy risk and government credit risk are the source category risk factors.These risks are at the beginning of each conduction path and are the source of each risk.Land transfer risk,cost risk,quality risk,duration risk,operating cost overrun risk and contract risk are transition category risk factors.The social benefit risk,economic benefit risk and ecological benefit risk are convergence category risk.The occurrence of these risks is the result of the combined effects of all risks.Analyzing the key risks,we find the following rules:source risk is generally at the bottom of the interpretative structural modeling,transitional risk is generally located at the middle of the structural model,and convergence risk is generally at the top of the structural model.Finally,from the overall model and key risks(partial)two parts,important management strategies are proposed to provide risk managers with important management implications.The paper summarizes the existing research on ecological PPP projects by sorting out a large number of literatures on the research of ecological PPP projects.Studying the conduction relationship between risk factors of ecological PPP projects can supplement the research related to project risk management and represent the conduction relationship between risk factors,providing new ideas for risk managers to solve problems,and laying the theoretical foundation for subsequent research on the risk factors conduction relationships of ecological PPP projects.