Study On Failure Probability And Risk Of Storage Tank In Chemical Industry Park Under The Impact Of Flood

In recent years,there have been a number of chemical accidents caused by floods.These accidents first caused the destruction of production equipment and storage and transportation equipment,and secondly caused the leakage of dangerous substances and caused serious disasters.The chemical industry occupies a very important strategic position in the national economy.Under the influence of flood disasters,accidents in vertical and horizontal storage tanks in the chemical industry park will seriously affect the entire chemical production process,thereby seriously affecting the national economy and people’s lives and property.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the failure probability and risk of storage tanks under different flood impact angles.Chapters 2 and 3 establish the mechanical failure models of vertical and horizontal storage tanks under different flood impact angles based on force analysis.Among them,the mechanical failure model based on the elastic failure of the tank wall was obtained for the vertical storage tank,and the mechanical failure model based on the failure of the saddle bolt was obtained for the horizontal storage tank.Based on the positive impact model,the force analysis models of horizontal storage tank saddle bolts under different flood impact angles were established,and the vulnerability coefficients of horizontal tanks under different flood impact angles were defined.Then,the vulnerability coefficients under other impact angles are compared with the positive impact vulnerability coefficients,and the attenuation changes under different flood impact angles are obtained.The results show that when the flood impacts the horizontal storage tank laterally at a certain angle,the larger the storage tank size,the closer the flooding impact force is to the situation of positive angle impact,and the more likely the tank is to fail.The greater the level,the smaller the impact force on the tank and the safer the tank.Chapters 4 and 5 analyze the reliability of vertical and horizontal storage tanks of the same type based on stress-strength interference theory and Copula function theory,respectively,and compare the results of the two theoretical calculations.The comparison shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the failure probability of the horizontal tank and the size of the tank,that is,the larger the tank size,the more likely the horizontal tank will fail under the same flood impact scenario,the law of vertical tanks is the opposite.The failure probability of vertical and horizontal tanks based on the traditional stress-strength interference model is greater than the failure probability of vertical and horizontal tanks calculated based on the Copula function.Chapter 6 is based on the failure probability of vertical and horizontal tanks obtained in Chapters 4 and 5.,sorts and ranks the risk of tanks in chemical parks in some provinces under the influence of floods,and the risk distribution map of chemical tanks in some provinces is obtained initially.The risk distribution map provides a scientific basis for flood control and flood protection of chemical tanks in chemical parks,aiming at improving the risk prevention and decision-making capabilities of chemical industry disaster events.