The Research On The Impact Of TGC Policy In China: A CGE Analysis

China is the largest developing country,and it is also the largest CO2 emitters in the world.Therefore,how to accelerate the development of low carbon economy and build the emission reduction path has become the most imoportant problem in China.The impact of carbon price on Chinese energy and climate change policy has pointed out that due to the alternative to fossil energy power generation and the development of renewable energy techonoligy,the power generation sector has a huge carbon emission reduction potential.Secondly,due to the conventional renewable energy subsidies completely controled by government,there is an increasing financial deficits in renewable subsidies.Therefore,the Tradable Green Certificate?TGC?and Renewable Portfolio Standard?RPS?system,which has already been implemented in developed countries so well,has been paid more and more attention by domestic scholars in order to deepen the reform of energy system.In this paper,a recursive computable general equilibrium?CGE?model is constructed to simulate the impact of TGC and RPS system on China's energy,economy and environment.We construct a mathematical model of China'sTGC and RPS system based on the various policy targets.And then we build 4 scenarios based on the different renewable energy quotas in order to provide theoretical support for formulating of Chinese policy.The results show that the implementation of the TGC and RPS system will significantly reduce the level of carbon dioxide emissions,which couldreduce 1.12 Bt-CO₂emissions at most in 2030.In the terms of energy field,the implementation of TGC and RPS system willcause a significant decrease in fossil energy output and consumption,especially in crude coal and oil;and promote the development of renewable energy?such as wind power,hydropwer and photovoltaic power?.TheTGC and RPS system will also solve the problem of renewable energy subsidy deficits caused by insufficient government finance and overdeveloped subsidies.However,this policy will also cause a lot economic loss in GDP through the huge deterioration of fossil energy-related industries.The TGC and RPS will directly affect the output of energy intensive industries and industrial structure through the limitation on the fossil energy consumption and output:in 2030,the proportion of the second industry output will decrease from 77%to 61%under the basic scenario;and the proportion of the third industry output will increase from 20%to 35%.Overspeaking,this paper argues that although the TGC and RPS system will bring some economic loss,it will also accelerate the reform of industrial structure and energy structure,and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.Therefore,it is an ideal renewable energy policy in the power industry reform.And it is recommended that the RPS level would not over 45%and it could work better if it carried out with some economic stimulus policies,like preferential tax polices.