| China has made big pay for the rapid growth of economy and continuous improvement of people's living standard in resources and environment.At the present stage increasing issues of energy and environment are breaking out in China.Being the core of propelling energy saving and emission reduction,settling energy and environment problems,and realizing the economical sustainable development,technology advancement has been an important means of promoting the sustainable development and implementing the change of economic growth mode.This paper first measures the total factor productivity performance of 30 provinces and cities basing on the non-radial BML-DEA model,which shows that Chinese total factor productivity has been growing by 1.51%annually over the period of 1998 to 2013 and the technical level and efficiency level by 1.86%and-0.36%respectively.During the research the total factor productivity index,technical efficiency and technological progress also increased by 22.65%,27.9%and-5.4%respectively.The growth of total factor productivity attributes to technical progress,and the efficiency of resource utilization doesn't play a role in promoting.Actually it partly offsets the contribution of technical progress.The empirical research by constructing econometric model between R&D investment and TFP finds that R&D investment doesn't promote the growth of total factor productivity but really restrains the growth greatly from the whole.This paper also performs robustness analysis from dynamic effect,the impact of outliers,macroeconomic fluctuations and nonlinear effects,whose results still support the original conclusion.In addition,the empirical study shows that there are regional differences in the impact of R&D investment on total factor productivity.And the inhibition effect is mainly reflected in the East.It is not significant in Midwest.Secondly,considering the existence of strong positive externalities(spillover effects),this paper uses spatial econometric model to analyze the spillover effects of technical progress more precisely.The study finds that the intensity of provincial energy consumption has a significant spatial effect,which manifests that the reduction of the intensity of energy consumption in other regions will be conducive to the reduction of local energy consumption intensity.And the internal expenditure of R&D funds has a significant spillover effect on the energy consumption intensity,whose specific performance is that the internal expenditure of R&D funds can greatly promote the reduction of energy consumption intensity in neighboring regions.The effect of foreign direct investment on reducing the energy consumption intensity in the local area is much less significant than that in the surrounding areas.Domestic technology transfer has a significant inhibitory effect on the energy consumption intensity of both local region and neighboring regions while the introduction of foreign technology can promote the energy consumption intensity of other neighboring regions.Meanwhile,the significant indirect effect of introduction of foreign technology on energy consumption intensity offsets its insignificant direct effect to a large extent.Thus it can be seen that there isn't good digestion and absorption in the introduction of foreign advanced energy-saving technologies,not to mention forming good regional cooperation and information exchange.The direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of industrial structure on energy consumption intensity all are positive.The impact of energy consumption structure on energy consumption intensity is not significant.Thirdly,due to the two kinds of path mechanism of mutual effect of technical progress and carbon emissions,the increase of R&D investment will promote technology upgrading,furthermore reducing the unit of resource input and emissions of pollutants(direct mechanism).When the income increases to a certain extent,the environment quality will also be improved.Therefore the technical progress can indirectly affect the carbon emissions(indirect mechanism)by affecting economic growth.The direct and indirect effects on the carbon emissions of technical progress are studied by constructing the dynamic panel simultaneous equation.The study shows that the total effect of technical progress on carbon emissions is composed of indirect effects and direct effects,and the emission reduction effect will be enhanced with the increase of income.So policymakers can continue to promote economic growth steadily,increase R&D investment,and boost greater technical progress so as to achieve greater carbon emission reduction effect.Then,the effect of technical progress on Chinese macro economy,energy saving and emission reduction,industrial development and import and export trade etc.under the 0.5%policy simulation scenario in technical progress resulting from biochemical R&D activities is simulating-studied in the large-scale dynamic MCHUGE model with complex structure of coordinated development of Chinese energy-economy-environment system.The study finds that technical progress plays an important role in energy saving and emission reduction,which is helpful to the sustainable development of China's economy.First,technical progress has effectively promoted economic growth.In the final demand,the part of R&D investment increases,so the stock of knowledge capital increases,and the amount of knowledge capital investment in the next period is also increased,which results in the growth of total output.What's more,technical progress improves the output level of each industry.Energy R&D activities impel the substitution of knowledge capital for energy investment,so that the unit output of energy input intensity of each industry decreases while the output growth rate increases,which propel the growth of output of each industrial sectors.Finally,technical progress is beneficial to the adjustment of industrial structureIn the end,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations combined with the conclusions of this study. |
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