Research On The Effect Of Oil Import On My Country's Economy

Oil is an important energy source in our country.Under the current situation of "lack of oil and less gas",China has become the world's largest oil importer and the second largest oil consumer.Oil imports have contributed to the sustainable,rapid and healthy development of the national economy and made a great contribution.On the one hand,facing the unprecedented changes in this century,the international situation is changing rapidly and becoming increasingly complex,showing a high degree of instability and uncertainty,with the energy sector,especially oil bearing the brunt.On the other hand,as the economy enters a new stage,high-quality development has become the theme of our country's ‘14th Five-Year Plan'.Through the concepts of innovation,coordination,green,openness,and sharing,balanced,inclusive,and sustainable medium-to-high-speed economic growth will be achieved.From the perspective of external oil input,what kind of policies and measures should my country implement to achieve high-quality economic development is an important issue facing the complex international situation and domestic supply-side reforms.In view of this,this paper starts from oil import,builds a theoretical framework of the impact of oil import on the economy,conducts empirical analysis and policy simulation,scientifically reveals the impact of oil import on our country's economy,and has implications for the scientific development of my country's oil industry and related policy formulation.So it has a positive meaning.This paper takes the impact of oil import on China's economy as the research object.First of all,it builds a theoretical framework for the impact of oil import on the economy,including the transmission mechanism of oil import's impact on the economy,the supply impact effect of oil import,the impact of industry structure,and the impact of technological progress.Effect and factor contribution effect,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following;secondly,it conducts a quantitative test on the transmission mechanism of oil imports affecting economic effects,and analyzes the total and structural effects of oil imports on China's economy.Empirical evidence,and constructed an input-output model of the impact of oil imports on various industrial sectors,carried out analysis and research on subindustry sectors,and obtained preliminary conclusions on the impact of oil imports on the economy;then,from the perspective of total factor productivity,the impact of oil imports on The impact of biased technological progress verifies the contribution of oil imports to total factor productivity and deepens the understanding of the impact of oil imports on the economy;then,in order to avoid the shortcomings of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,based on the computable general equilibrium model from a policy perspective The impact of oil import on China's economy is simulated and analyzed,which provides a reference for the scientific formulation of oil import policies.Finally,based on the conclusions of empirical research and the results of verification analysis,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward in a targeted manner.conclusions and outlook.The specific research conclusions are as follows.(1)Oil prices affect oil importsOn the basis of the stationarity and causality test of the related series,the VAR model of oil import and oil price is constructed,and then the co-integration relationship between variables is judged.to measure its long-term and short-term effects.From the constructed model,it can be concluded that oil price is the Granger cause of oil import,but oil import is not the Granger cause of oil price.In the long run,the effect of 1% fluctuation in oil price on oil import is 1.0102%.On a short view,a 1% change in oil prices in the current period caused a 0.5934% change in oil imports in the positive direction,and the second period caused a positive change of 0.3360%,the third period caused a positive change of 0.0128%,with an overall effect of 0.9422%.The hypothesis that oil price causes oil import is verified,and it is concluded that the impact of oil import on economy is mainly realized by participating in supply.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between oil imports and the Chinese economic growthThe results of the measurement of the impact of oil imports on GDP show that:in the long run,oil import has a relatively obvious impact on the long-term effect of my country's GDP.For every 1% change in oil imports,GDP will increase by0.1809% in the same direction.From the perspective of short-term effect,for every1% change in oil import,the current period,the second period and the third period of GDP will change by 0.0740%,0.3660% and 0.7829% respectively.The overall effect is: 1.2229%,so oil import has a short-term positive effect on my country's GDP.At the same time,from a long-term perspective,oil imports have a long-term positive effect on my country's investment,consumption,and import and export,as well as a short-term positive effect.(3)The value flow and cost transfer of oil imports differ across industriesAccording to the calculation results of the oil import input-output model,it can be seen that the top ten sectors with relatively large effects of oil imports are: oil and natural gas extraction products,gas production and supply,petroleum,coking products and nuclear fuel processing products,electricity,Heat production and supply,chemical products,non-metallic mineral products,transportation,warehousing and postal services,metal products,machinery and equipment repair services,accommodation and catering,and construction,the effects of different sectors vary greatly.(4)Oil imports drive total factor productivity(TFP)growth through technology diffusionFrom 2003 to 2015,China's technological progress as a whole was characterized by the coexistence of oil imports and capital-oriented technological progress,with a relative preference for capital,oil import use and domestic energy conservation.The direction of China's technological progress is closely related to the structure of factor input,which is mainly affected by factors such as China's low degree of marketization,the simplification of the long-term energy supply system,energy supply price control,and financial restraint.Biased technological progress between oil imports and domestic energy has a positive effect on total factor productivity(TFP).(5)There are certain differences in the impact of different oil imports on the macro economyThis paper numerically simulates the macroeconomic impact of four scenarios of China's oil imports increasing by 5%,10%,15% and 20%,showing that under the four scenarios of increased oil imports,the output value of all industries(except the energy sector)has increased,and the increase rate is different.The growth of output in the transport and chemical sectors caused by the increase in oil imports slowed down as imports increased.Under the scenarios of oil imports increasing by5%,10%,15% and 20%,the prices of all industries and sectors have declined,with different declines,and residents' income and macro-welfare have both increased with the increase in oil imports.Increasing my country's oil imports will increase the total social income,reduce the trade surplus in goods,and play a positive role in reducing my country's pressure on RMB appreciation,reducing economic dependence on foreign countries,and adjusting the impact of export structure.In addition,using the CGE model to simulate the impact of oil import interruption on the economy,the results show that in the scenario without oil reserves,oil import interruption for one and two months will cause losses of 0.4355% and0.8838% of real GDP.In the reserve scenario,this ratio drops to 0.1557% and0.8120%.Through the research,the main contributions of this paper are as follows.(1)Constructed a theoretical framework for the impact of oil imports on economic growthOn the basis of studying the transmission mechanism of oil imports to the economy,the supply influence effect,industry structure influence effect,technological progress influence effect and factor contribution effect of oil import are analyzed,and the computable general equilibrium theory is analyzed from the perspective of oil import..(2)Empirical analysis of the impact of oil imports on economic developmentAiming at the impact of oil import fluctuations on our country's economy,an econometric model was constructed to study the relationship between oil imports and oil prices,and the effects of oil imports on GDP and structural variables were tested by co-integration and error correction models.The input-output model of the impact of imports on various industrial sectors analyzes the impact of various industrial sectors,and calculates the impact of oil import-biased technological progress on economic growth.(3)Simulate the impact of oil import policy on economic growthBased on the Computable General Equilibrium Theory,this paper constructs a CGE model of oil imports including five modules(production module,trade module,institutional module,equilibrium closed module,and resident welfare module).More than 100 industrial sectors are combined into 18 industrial sectors to construct a SAM table,which is programmed with GAMS software to conduct policy simulations on the impact of oil import economic growth.