| Urbanization and carbon emissions are two important themes of China's economic and social development in recent years.Urban agglomeration is the inevitable outcome of urbanization to the advanced stage.The urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta is the fastest growing and the highest level of urbanization in China.It is of great significance to explore the effect of urbanization on carbon emission and its action path in the urban agglomeration.It is of great significance to reveal the mechanism of the influence factors of carbon emissions and to realize the low carbon development in the urban agglomeration,and can also be used in other cities.The development of the group can be used for reference.Firstly,the main factors influencing the carbon emissions are screened by the literature research method.Based on the basic theory of economics,the influence path of the main factors on carbon emission is theoretically derived,and the influence factor system of carbon emission is constructed with the interpretation structure model(ISM),which lays a theoretical foundation for the sequel empirical analysis.Secondly,the status of urbanization and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region is analyzed.(1)the urbanization level of Shanghai is obviously higher than that of Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province;the urbanization level of the two provinces in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is different,and the urbanization development has great potential.(2)the carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta region under 2008-2015 years of provincial,municipal and county level were estimated,and the current situation of carbon emissions under three scales was analyzed.The results showed that in the provincial scale,from the time dimension,the total carbon emissions in the three provinces in the 2008-2011 years showed a rising trend,and the three of the year 2011.From the regional difference,the carbon emission level of Jiangsu province is the highest,and the carbon emission level of Shanghai and Zhejiang province tends to be the same.In the city and county scale,the difference of carbon emissions between the Yangtze River Delta region is very large,the carbon emission of the central region is high and the northern and southern regions are high.Carbon emissions are relatively low.(3)through multi scale contrast analysis,it is found that the level of urbanization and carbon emissions are basically the same under the city and county scale,and there is little difference between the two scales.(4)from the perspective of scale variance,county scale is relatively optimal and can reflect the spatial scale of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region more accurately.Thirdly,the spatial effects of urbanization on carbon emissions are analyzed and compared with different scales.(1)The spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions under three spatial weighting matrices of adjacency,geographical distance and economic distance is studied by the method of exploratory spatial data analysis.The results show that the carbon emissions in the provincial scale show a positive spatial autocorrelation,and the geographical and economic factors contribute to the spatial autocorrelation of the space;In the scale,the carbon emission shows negative spatial autocorrelation,thus it can be judged that the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta has shown the situation of the radiation of the core cities and the trend of the surrounding cities.In the county scale,there is a phenomenon of "beggar thy neighbour" in the distribution of high pollution and high carbon emissions in some areas.(2)In order to obtain the effects of urbanization on carbon emissions and their differences under different spatial scales,the three spatial scales were studied and contrasted.The results showed that the system of carbon emissions was more complex in the provincial scale,and the carbon emissions from the provinces were affected by the other regions in addition to the economy,population and science and technology.In the city and county scale,population size is the most important factor affecting regional carbon emissions.Compared to the level of economic development,population size and technical level,the feedback effect of urbanization is the most obvious.Under the county scale,the spatial spillover effect of the main factors of carbon emissions is higher than the provincial and municipal areas.The spatial spillover effect on the scale.Then,we use the medium effect model to study the effect path of urbanization development on carbon emissions under three spatial scales.The results show that(1)the action path of urbanization is basically consistent with the carbon emissions under the three spatial scales,and there is a path of urbanization,industrial structure and carbon emissions,but there is no production.To the path of urbanization and carbon emissions,the industrial structure affects the carbon emissions directly.Under the city scale,the influence is more obvious.(2)Under the three spatial scales,there are the paths of urbanization,economic development level and carbon emission,and there are economic development level,urbanization and carbon emission at the provincial and county level.(3)the improvement of the urbanization rate in the Yangtze River Delta can not effectively promote the improvement of the social employment level,and more on the adjustment of the employment structure in the region,and there is no link between the level of urbanization,the level of employment,the level of economic development and the carbon emissions in the three scales.The influence path of urbanization on carbon emissions is roughly the same under three spatial scales,but there are differences in the force at different spatial scales.The results of the scale variance decomposition model show that the county scale can more accurately reflect the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region.Finally,according to the conclusions of the study,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. |
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