Forecast Of Effectiveness And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Chinese Shipping Emission Control Areas

In recent years,the air pollution from Chinese shipping is becoming increasingly prominent.China established Chinese Emission Control Area?ECA?since 2015 to constrain the increasing shipping emissions.However,the effectiveness,costs and benefits of Chinese ECAs remains unkown.Therefore,a locally-based effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis must certainly be developed.First,this study determined the geographical scale for ports and regions.Port and regional emission inventory were established in Jing-jin-ji?JJJ?,the Yangtze River Delta?YRD?and the Pearl River Delta?PRD?using an activity-based approach based on Automatic Identification System?AIS?.In 2013,The resulting total port SO₂ emissions in JJJ,the YRD,and the PRD are 24.2 kt,36.0kt,and 15.6 kt,and the total port PM emissions are 2.4 kt,3.5 kt,and 1.5 kt,respectively.A forecast of shipping emissions in port and regional inventory is presented accounting for shipping activities,mean rating power and influence of EEDI?Energy Efficiency Design Index?in 2020.SO₂ emissions are expected to increase by 44%,22%,and 50%in JJJ,the YRD,and the PRD,respectively,while PM emissions will grow by 45%,22%,and 51%.Second,potential shipping emission reductions of an ECA policy package set are evaluated to investigate the effects of current and possible Chinese ECAs policies.All scenarios are expected to cut SO₂ and PM significantly.The reduction ration in SO₂ will be higher than that in PM.Regional control measures were far more effective in reducing emissions.Therefore,the transition from port control to regional control is highly necessary in the long-term.Last,costs and benefits of ECA scenarios are measured using approach of WRF/CMAQ model and health model,and approach of social costs,respective ly.According to the approach of WRF/CMAQ model and health model,t he establishment of JJJ ECA is expected to avoid 314 premature deaths annually,bring health benefits of 43.07 million dollars.According to the approach of social costs,net benefits of port inventory range between 0.1 to 0.5 billion dollars,and1.9 to 4.7 billion dollars for regional inventory.The environmental benefits of implementing ECA would be tremendous,more than two-fold higher than costs.Switching from 0.5%sulphur fuel to 0.1%sulphur fuel generated more benefits but lower B/C ratios,which means it is less effective.In conclusion,our findings provide evidence that the first step to reduce the fuel sulphur content by 0.5%is the most important influential factor.