Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions Of Tianjin Residential Sector Based On Generalized Fisher Model

Global warming and climate change have a devastating effect on human health and survival as well as the entire eco-environment.Preventing the destruction of greenhouse gases,especially carbon dioxide,and preventing their threat to humans have become the new global problems.Residential sector is the second largest sector of carbon emissions in our country,who's carbon dioxide emissions is next to the industrial sector.Carbon emissions from resident are increasingly significant.How to analyze and control the emissions of resident becomes a key step in preventing the impact of greenhouse gases.Choosing Tianjin as a typical example,this paper analyzed the factors causing carbon emissions in urban & rural residential sector.Based on the extended Kaya identity,a multivariate generalized Fisher index(GFI)decomposition model was built to measure the impacts of energy structure,energy intensity,urban/rural per capita disposable income,urban/rural household size and number of urban/rural households on residential carbon emissions from 1995(rural 1996)to 2014.The results show that sustained growth of urban per capita disposable income was the leading factor of the urban residential carbon emissions,with cumulative contributions of 639.1% in 2014.Number of urban households had a stimulating effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the same period.The continuous optimization of the urban energy structure over the past 20 years had no obvious inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.Urban energy intensity was the primary factor restraining carbon emissions with the cumulative contributions of 0.318.To a certain extent,urban household size reduced carbon emissions but only with a slight effect.The growth of rural per capita disposable income was the leading factor of the rural residential carbon emissions,with cumulative contributions of 541.5% in 2014.The number of rural households and the energy structure both play a minor role in promoting the growth of rural residents' carbon emissions.Rural energy intensity was the primary factor restraining carbon emissions with the cumulative contributions of 0.360.Similarly,the continued reduction of the number of rural households is also one of the factors that depress the carbon emissions of residents,with a cumulative contribution rate of 0.862.Finally,based on the results and analysis,the paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations.