Feasibility Of Peaking Carbon Emissions Of The Power Sector In China’s Eight Regions By 2030:Decomposition,Decoupling,and Prediction Analysis

In recent years,the problems of greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming have brought a lot of inconvenience to the lives of the people of the world,and they have been increasingly valued by world organizations and countries around the world.How to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus suppress climate warming has become a hot topic of research.As a main component of greenhouse gases,carbon dioxide has also become the darling of scholars.From the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,which entered into force in 1994,to the Global Framework for Climate Services Agreement established by the 2009 Geneva Climate Conference,and the Paris Agreement signed in 2015,all have reflected the vision and determination of countries around the world to reduce carbon emissions.As the world’s second largest energy consumer and largest greenhouse gas emitter,China has relented in controlling carbon emissions and actively assumes corresponding responsibilities,which shows the mind and demeanor of a big country.In 2014,China made a commitment in the "Sino-US Joint Statement on Climate Change" that carbon dioxide emissions peaked around 2030 and that they would work to reach the peak soon.In the past ten years,China’s power sector carbon emissions accounted for 49.1%of China’s total carbon emissions and 32.1%of the world’s total carbon emissions.It can be seen that the carbon emissions of the power sector is still a non-negligible part of China’s total carbon emissions,and measures need to continue to be taken to save energy and reduce emissions in the power sector.Therefore,studying the carbon emissions of the power sector is an important part of studying the peak of carbon emissions at the national level in China,and it is an important part of the national level of carbon emission reduction work.Based on the triple perspective of decomposition,decoupling,and forecasting,this paper studies the feasibility of peak carbon emissions in the power sector in eight regions of China.First,the generalized Divisia index model(GDIM)is used to decompose the carbon emissions of the eight regional power sectors,and the driving factors of carbon emissions in the power sectors of each region are compared,as well as their impact direction and extent on carbon emissions.Then,the decoupling index(GDIM-D)based on thegeneralized Divisia index model is used to study the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in eight regional power sectors.Finally,the carbon emissions and decoupling index of the power sector from 2017 to 2030 are forecasted,and the possibility of peaking the carbon emissions of the power sector in each region in 2030 is examined on this basis.The results show that:First,from 2003 to 2016,the carbon emissions of the eight major power sectors in China have changed significantly.The total carbon emissions of the power sector in each region increased,while the proportion of carbon emissions from the power sector in total carbon emissions declined.Second,the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)and output scale are the main factors contributing to the carbon emissions of the eight regional power sectors.The economic carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are the main factors that contribute to the reduction.Third,the carbon emissions of the southern coast,the middle Yellow River and the Southwest peaked in 2013 and have been decoupled from economic growth,while carbon emissions from the power sector in other regions are still increasing year by year,and have been not decoupled from economic growth.Finally,in different forecast scenarios(the average annual growth rates of GDP are 5.5%,6.5%,and 7.5%,respectively),if the carbon emissions of the power sector in the Northeast,northern coast,eastern coast,middle Yangtze River,and Northwest reach a peak in 2030,they will face many emissions reduction pressures.This paper provides a reference for studying the carbon emissions of China’s regional power sectors and their relationship with economic growth and has important implications for peak carbon emissions at the national level.Compared with existing research,the main contributions of this paper are as follows.Compared with existing research,the main contributions of this paper are as follows.(1)At the regional level,the GDIM method is used to calculate and decompose the carbon emissions of the power sector from 2003 to 2016.GDIM makes up for the shortcomings of exponential decomposition methods based on the Kaya identity(such as LMDI)and SDA models.(2)Based on the perspective of regional breakdown,the carbon emissions of the eight regional power sectors in China are analyzed.It can accurately grasp the different driving effects of various factors on carbon emissions,so that it can make targeted recommendations for the reduction of power in various regions.(3)The absolute quantity factors were introduced into the decoupling index model,the GDIM-D decoupling index model was established,and the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of the eight regional power sectors were studied..(4)Based on the perspective of decoupling,this article evaluated the feasibility of China’s power sector carbon emissions reaching peaks in 2030 from the perspective of historical evolution and future predictions.