Research On Operation Risk Of Civil Aircraft Systems Safety Analysis Oriented Continuous Airworthiness

Airworthiness management includes the initial airworthiness and the continuous airworthiness.As the continuation of maintaining the design reliability and safety for the initial airworthiness during the operation of aircraft,the continuous airworthiness takes the response for ensuring the safety level within the model design requirements in the whole life cycle of aircraft.The continuous airworthiness risk management of aircraft which relates to the CAAC's continuous airworthiness risk control and the air carrier's safe operation is highly integrated by the macro security risk management and micro-safety operation.However,the continuous airworthiness risk management faces the increasing control difficulty from the complicated interaction among risks sources and the extensive of risk sources during the operation of aircraft.Therefore,in order to provide the efficient support during the operation of aircraft,this paper focus on the following points to carry out the research.First,the aircraft risk control process through the airworthiness directives by the airworthiness controller is described based on the flow relationship of elements of continuous airworthiness,the operation risk control strategy stage of airworthiness and the information related to airworthiness directive instructions.Second,the results of analysis of aircraft operation risk in the continuous airworthiness illustrates the change regulation of operation risk caused by design problems and the operational risk regulation caused by operation factors.The dynamic continuous airworthiness risk of aircraft is described by introducing the explicit representation of risk to obtain information about unsafe incidents.The civil aircraft operation risk analysis and control process are studied,which use civil aircraft operation risk analysis methods,laying a foundation for further developing aircraft operational risk modeling for continuous airworthiness.Third,the statistics report of China civil aviation safety information has been collected over the years,the rules leading to unsafe events are analyzed,Aiming at the need of safe operation of aircraft,combined with the characteristics of imbalance data during the dimension reduction with principal component analysis of unsafe events.The last,the research focuses on the modeling technology of aircraft operation risk with deep learning technology.The analysis of the advantages and the drawbacks of various risk predicting model methods illustrates the superiority of deep learning methods in developing the aircraft risk modelling.In order to proof the effectiveness of presented method,a deep learning model based on denoising autoencoder is established to predict the risk of aircraft operation,and the actual unsafe risks of aircraft are compared.The research results in this paper can be applied to analyze operational risks of in-service aircraft,and also able to apply to the field of aircraft operation risk control in China's large aircraft.