| As of 2013,the total length of China's natural gas pipeline has reached 380,000 kilometers,and that of the main pipeline has been longer than 55,000 kilometers.China is going to build a great quantity of gas pipelines in the future.The pipelines,as flammable,explosive and toxic conveying medium working in the circumstance of high pressure,were buried underground through difficult terrains,which possesses high potential danger.Once the pipeline fail to work,serious consequences would occur.A timely risk evaluation will play a preventive role as well as reduce losses in the greatest extent.However,the current risk evaluation technology of natural gas pipeline in China clearly lags behind that in developed countries.Therefore,the research of this technology has a great practical significance.The main contents of this thesis are listed as follows:1.comparing the risk evaluation technology of natural gas pipeline between China and developed countries,explaining the necessity of developing this technology in China.2.Combining and analyzing several risk evaluation methods and determining to take FCE(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)as the method to evaluate the risk of gas pipeline.3.Researching a large number of failure factors and factors of failure consequence,building the system of possible factors of failure and the system of factors of failure consequence in consideration of the practical situation in China,and dividing evaluation rank for each factor.4.Determining Analytic Hierarchy Process as the method to confirm the weight of each factor.5.Researching the acceptability criteria of pipeline risk,trying to confirm the acceptability criteria of risk of FCE,offering suggestions to relieve pipeline risks.6.Developing a software of fuzzy risk evaluation of natural gas pipeline.7.Applying both FCE and the fuzz comprehensive evaluation software to pipelines and explaining the applicability of FCE and the accuracy of software calculation. |
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