A Study On The Fluctuation Of China’s Carbon Emission Right Price And Its Influencing Factors

With the start of the national carbon emission trading in China at the end of 2017,China’s carbon emission reduction has entered a new stage.In this context,the study of the price of carbon emission right(hereinafter referred to as carbon price)of China is very meaningful.This paper takes carbon price of China’s carbon pilots as the research object and studies the characteristics of its volatility and influencing factors.In the study of the volatility of carbon price,this paper uses the GARCH family model to study the agglomeration,continuity and asymmetry of the volatility of carbon emission rights.The results show that there is volatility clustering in the yields of carbon emission rights in Guangdong,Shenzhen,Beijing and Hubei carbon trading pilots,and the pilot of Shenzhen has the longest duration of fluctuation,followed by Guangdong and Hubei with the shortest.Except for the positive relationship between returns and risks in Hubei market,the relationship between the yield and the risk of the other three pilot projects is not significant.In addition,there is still asymmetry in the volatility of the carbon emission rights returns of the pilot projects in Guangdong and Beijing.The fluctuations caused by the positive shocks are greater than the negative shocks.From the characteristics of the volatility analysis,Hubei pilot market development is better than the other three pilots.In the research of the influence factors of carbon price in our country,this paper chooses macroeconomy,energy price,weather,international carbon prices and other factors,uses general panel model and spatial panel model to do modeling analysis.According to the analysis,macroeconomy,energy prices,policies and international carbon prices all have a significant impact on carbon price:the prices of natural gas and European Union Allowance(EUA)play a positive role in promoting carbon price.Macroeconomy and coal price have a negative inhibitory effect on carbon price.Policies and institutions also have an important impact on carbon price.The impact of weather on carbon price in China is not significant.There is a positive interaction between pilot carbon prices.The large volatility of carbon price will increase the uncertainty of corporate emissions control,affect the production decisions of enterprises and the enthusiasm of participating in carbon trading,which is not conducive to the realization of long-term emission reduction goals in society.It is necessary for the government to take measures to control the price fluctuation of carbon emission rights.Based on the research findings,this paper makes relevant policy suggestions for stabilizing carbon price,stabilizing carbon market and promoting pilot carbon market orderly development,hoping to provide some references for the pilot carbon markets to stabilize carbon price and the national carbon market to make price control rules.