Natural Gas Pipeline Operation Risk Assessment Method And Its Application Research

With the rapid development of economy in China,the consumption of energy increased gradually,which caused serious damages to the environment,and brought negative social impact.In order to realize the sustainable development of economy and environment,the demand of natural gas considered as environmental protection energy increased,and natural gas pipeline transportation industry has become an important industry in the national economy.However,with the increase of natural gas pipeline and the arrival of "aging" era,natural gas pipeline accidents followed,which brought great threat to people's lives and property.At the same time,the leakage and perforation of natural gas can bring huge economic losses and adverse social impact to the operation and management of natural gas enterprise.Therefore,the operation safety of natural gas pipeline has become an important problem to be solved in the risk assessment area.Through the comparative study of the current application of a wide range of risk assessment methods,the combined use of qualitative and quantitative gas pipeline risk assessment methods is ultimately adopted.Based on the due theory and the statistical data of accidents,fishbone diagram analysis method is used as a qualitative evaluation of the natural gas pipeline risk.The accident possibility fishbone diagram and the severity of the accidents fishbone diagram are established,and the main causes of natural gas pipeline accidents are found.The factors leading to natural gas pipeline accidents are found by fishbone diagram,and the natural gas pipeline accident probability index system and natural gas pipeline accident severity index system are established.A quantitative study on natural gas pipeline operation risk is addressed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Expert questionnaire method is employed to determine the weights of various factors,and the factors are evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive method.The risk value is calculated by the weighted average method,and according to which the risk level is classified.The operation situation of natural gas pipeline in N city is studied,the risk value of each pipeline segment is calculated,and the corresponding preventive measures are proposed according to the level of the risk.