Study On The Countermeasures Of Total Coal Consumption Control In Shandong Province Under Multiple Scenarios

Energy is the engine of a country's economic growth and social progress,and the most important basic resource in daily life.A stable long-term energy supply is an important guarantee for economic development,social stability and national security.Coal resources are the main energy source of China's energy consumption and are closely related to the national economy.At present,energy security,economic transformation,climate change,etc.all constrain energy consumption and carbon emissions.Under the background of accelerating the construction of ecological civilization in China,strictly controlling the total amount of energy consumption and ensuring continuous reduction of coal consumption are the primary tasks for promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption and solving outstanding environmental problems such as smog.Coal plays a dominant role in China's energy supply and consumption.Therefore,whether it is controlling the total energy consumption,achieving non-fossil energy development goals,or reducing CO₂emissions per unit of GDP,total coal consumption control is the key.Shandong Province is the largest province of energy consumption.Energy consumption accounts for nearly one-tenth of the country's total energy consumption.In particular,energy consumption is dominated by coal for a long time,and the proportion of coal consumption is too high.With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization,the resource and environmental bottlenecks in Shandong Province have become increasingly obvious,energy supply has been continuously restricted,and ecological and environmental problems have become more serious.Therefore,the implementation of coal reduction and substitution is an objective requirement to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode and adjustment of industrial structure.It is a major measure to maintain sustained and healthy economic and social development and promote ecological civilization.In view of this,this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the economic and social development and energy consumption of Shandong Province,and builds a LEAP model of total coal consumption control in Shandong Province based on the analysis of the status quo.Through the scenario analysis,the total coal consumption control target of Shandong Province was obtained,and countermeasures were proposed.In particular:?1?The total energy consumption of Shandong Province has remained high,accounting for nearly one-tenth of the country's total energy consumption,especially coal consumption.Its share has been too high for a long time,and ecological and environmental problems have intensified.The main reason for the high consumption of coal is the large demand for industrial consumption,the heavy industrial structure,and the high proportion of thermal power generation.Therefore,the implementation of total coal consumption control in Shandong Province is an inevitable choice for achieving high-quality economic development.?2?Through the analysis of the factors affecting coal consumption,economic development relies heavily on coal consumption,and advances in technology can also improve energy efficiency and reduce total coal consumption.At the same time,the analysis of industrial structure shows that the industrial structure of Shandong Province is biased,which also shows that economic development is over-reliant on fossil energy consumption.The decoupling model shows that economic development and coal consumption in the current state of Shandong are weakly decoupled,and economic growth is still related to coal consumption.But overall,the rate of economic growth is greater than the growth rate of energy consumption.The intensity of energy consumption is also gradually decreasing,and the situation in which economic development is over-reliant on energy consumption is improving.?3?Establish a coal-control LEAP model for Shandong Province,set up a baseline scenario,a coal control scenario,and an enhanced coal control scenario.Simulate and analyze industrial structure changes,energy efficiency improvements,energy structure changes,energy consumption,coal consumption and peak carbon dioxide emissions in three scenarios to find ways to comply with national coal control policies,international carbon emission peak commitments,economic development in Shandong Province.Under the baseline scenario,the economic growth rate is relatively high,and there is still a certain increase in heavy chemical industry.The total coal consumption in Shandong Province,including coal consumption of coal-fired power in external power regulation,will also rise slightly,which is not in line with the national coal control policy.Under the enhanced coal control scenario,the economic growth rate is lower than the baseline situation and the coal control scenario.The proportion of high energy consumption and heavy chemical industry is lower,the growth rate is lower than the GDP growth rate,the energy intensity is further reduced,and the external adjustment power remains relatively stable.The peak coal consumption peaked in 2016 and then continued to decline.Carbon emissions peaked around 2025,in line with national requirements,and can also guarantee the realization of international commitments reached by the national carbon emission peaks by 2030.For Shandong,a province with the highest energy consumption and heavy chemical industry,the largest province of energy consumption,coal is mainly consumed in power generation,coking,heating and relatively low proportion of terminal consumption,only relying on the development of nuclear power and renewable Energy,or energy efficiency,is difficult to reverse the high coal consumption.Increasing the proportion of externally regulated electricity can reduce the environmental pollution caused by coal combustion in Shandong Province.Unless the proportion of green power in external power is increased,it is only a transfer of pollution.According to the country's coal consumption and carbon emission assessment methods,the consumption of coal in externally regulated electricity is also calculated in the coal consumption of Shandong Province.?4?Based on the empirical analysis and scenario analysis,combined with the current situation of coal consumption in Shandong Province,and drawing on the experience of zero growth in energy consumption at home and abroad,this paper puts forward the implementation path and countermeasures for the total coal consumption control in Shandong Province.It can provide data support and theoretical reference for energy planning and environmental policy for relevant departments.